Just like I anticipated happening earlier this month, Solana (CCC:SOL-USD) has been trending lower. To some extent, its because of traders taking profit after the token’s epic run-up over the past few months. In addition, due to the still in-progress overall crypto sell-off.
Bitcoin (CCC:BTC-USD), not too long after hitting a new all-time high, is hanging just below the $60,000 per coin once again. A similar thing is playing out with Ethereum (CCC:ETH-USD). After hitting another all-time high, ETH could fall back below $4,000 per token.
As for Cardano (CCC:ADA-USD), Solana’s key rival among the so-called “Ethereum killers?” Despite treading water while its peers zoomed higher, ADA is not getting out of this latest mini-correction unscathed. It’s taken a dive too, falling below $2 per token.
So, with pullback, is it time to head for the hills, or buy?
I would say the latter, but on a case-by-case basis. With BTC and ETH? Long-term crypto bulls may want to buy this dip and add to their positions. Same goes for ADA. For SOL however, you may want to wait. Despite its strong long-term prospects, as it’s due for a more outsized correction, there’s little reason to scoop it up any time soon.
Solana and its Many Strengths
Before making the argument as to why now’s not the time to buy SOL-USD, I’ll reiterate what I’ve said about it in prior coverage: there’s ample long-term upside potential with this name.
Solana and Cardano, its highly DeFi-compatible (decentralized finance) peer, both could give Ethereum a run for the money. Or, at least, gain significant ground when it comes to its share of the overall blockchain economy. In the case of this token, not only does its network sport much faster transaction speeds (tens of thousands per second) than Ethereum’s network but transaction fees with it are much lower as well.
To top it all off, as my InvestorPlace colleague Mark Hake recently argued, Solana is doing a better job attracting DeFi, dApp (decentralized app) and NFT (non-fungible token) developers than Cardano. At this moment, it appears to be the front-runner among the “Ethereum killers.”
Yet while this bodes well for SOL-USD over the long-term, it may not translate into higher prices in the short-term. Rather, following its tremendous rise in value in recent months, assuming crypto enthusiasm once again cools off, it may wind its way again down to prices well under $200.
At What Price Will The Dust Settle?
It’s too soon to say whether what’s playing out with cryptos is a potential meltdown, or simply near-term volatility. Market commentators have come up with various reasons why this sell-off is taking place. Some cite recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar as the culprit. Others point to news of China cracking down further on crypto miners.
It could be due to either cause. Or, crypto market participants overall could be taking profit from their positions. If this continues, a further slide lower may be in the cards. Perhaps not to the extent seen last May, where popular names saw high double-digit declines in price. Instead, it could wind up being a partial pullback, to price levels last seen in September.
What’s that mean for Solana? Based on where it was trading two months ago, it may dip back to $150 per token before the dust settles. That’s still a price well above the $23.50 per token it traded for back in late July, but 32% below the $222.32 per token it trades for today. That said, if you’re taking a long-term approach with cryptocurrencies, this may be a “can’t miss” price to enter a buy-and-hold position.
Sure, in theory you could buy now, and still potentially see a high return in the coming years. I believe that this crypto, based upon its above-mentioned strengths, stands to eventually rise to a value on par with Ethereum. Based on ETH’s valuation today (market capitalization of $504 billion), that’s a more than 7x possible gain for SOL from today’s prices. But with the strong chances it sells off further from here in the coming weeks/months, why bother diving into it today?
The Bottom Line on SOL-USD
It’s important to note that long-term appreciation for SOL-USD is anything but guaranteed. Planned improvements to Cardano could help it move ahead of this token’s blockchain when it comes to its share of the DeFi, dApp, and NFT markets.
Ethereum’s 2.0 upgrades could help it keep its would-be “killers” at bay. In turn, limiting the potential for both Cardano and Solana to join the $100 billion club.
Solana could become the third established crypto, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum. But between the long path it has to get there, and the high chances of a continued pullback in price? Take your time before buying.
On the date of publication, Thomas Niel held long positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum. He did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in any other securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.