The “house of mouse” is not what it used to be on main street. This is also the case for Disney (NYSE:DIS) stock on Wall Street.
When the pandemic hit, it severely hampered the ability for crowd companies to profit. They all had to adapt quickly to the crisis. Their survival depended on them staying afloat while there was hardly any income flowing in.
The global shutdown lasted many months last year. Even though the world has reopened for the most part, the levels of business have not yet fully recovered.
Moreover, Disney management is likely to keep the changes forever. Their timing for introducing the streaming platform was fortuitous. I knew that it was going to be an easy success. But the lockdowns exaggerated that and likely accelerated the adaptations of it.
This Is Virtually a New Company
As a result, Disney now has the ability to monetize its content without intermediaries. However, for the next few weeks, DIS stock will have to suffer along with all other crowd companies. The income streams from their parks still need the world to stay open. The new omicron version of the Covid-19 virus poses a threat to that progress.
Nevertheless, I still favor more upside from here than downside risk. This dip in DIS stock is viable into its support levels around $140 per share. Logically, investors should give management the benefit of the doubt. This company has gone through many transformations, but the leadership has always been very strong. If the stock markets are higher in the future, then Disney is also in the lead pack.
Statistically, it’s not easy to evaluate the stock based on its traditional metrics. The disruptions from the pandemic were too significant and clouded the ratios. Total revenue still shows progress, which is impressive under these conditions. Net income is now but a sliver of what it used to be. But at least they are back into a positive $2 billion run rate. In 2019, it was five times larger. Therefore, they still have much recovering to do before they go back to normal.
DIS Stock Has Support Now
Going forward, Disney stock should trade like Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) used to in its earlier years. It is more about growth of its streaming platform than the traditional businesses. Its price-to-sales is 4, which is not outrageously expensive. The P/E ratio still has some normalizing to do, so we should not use it. My guess is that we will need another 12 months to pass before we can use that metric.
Technically, DIS has fallen almost 60% from its highs. Now there are two important zones looming. The first is around $139 per share, which was pivotal before the spike last November. The second is just $12 below that, which has been in contention for two years. When a stock falls into prior battle zones it tends to find support. In this case it has two such areas, so the bulls should regain confidence.
In summary, my assumption today is that the dip in DIS stock is an opportunity to buy.
If I’m already long, I shouldn’t add without new information. If I’m looking to get long, I shouldn’t go all in just in case the stock market corrects. Yes, there is extrinsic risk from the indices being a few ticks away from their all-time highs. Cheap levels in Disney now will get cheaper if Wall Street corrects into Christmas.
On the date of publication, Nicolas Chahine did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com.
