After Cardano Halved, ADA is Acting Quite the Tease and It’s Disturbing

If you divorce Cardano (CCC:ADA-USD) from all the typical elements that govern market sentiment for any publicly tradable asset, you might be tempted to bet the farm on ADA, especially at present prices. At the time of writing, you can acquire Cardano coins for about 55% off their all-time high.

Cardano (ADA) token with blue and orange digital background.
Source: Stanslavs / Shutterstock

Gaming application Pavia launched on Jan. 15, becoming the first-ever metaverse project on the Cardano blockchain. CoinDesk reported that some “100,000 ‘land parcels’ were issued on Pavia, each being minted as a unique non-fungible token (NFT) with individual ‘coordinates’. Over 60% of these parcels were pre-sold in October and November 2021, with the remaining set to go on sale in the first quarter of 2022.”

NFT stands for non-fungible tokens, an electronic token representing something unique, say a digital piece of artwork or a website domain name. These tokens, in turn, use cryptocurrencies like Ethereum (CCC:ETH) or Cardano to run and validate.

A metaverse is a virtual world in which people can interact much like they do “IRL” — in real life — but digitally.

If that wasn’t enough to get you thinking about ADA coins, another CoinDesk article mentioned that the Cardano Foundation — a non-profit group that oversees development on the namesake network — “reached its first goal of planting over 1 million trees.” Obviously, that’s some environmental, social and governance (ESG) cred that can easily attract young investor dollars.

For me, the main point isn’t so much about the granularity of these news items. You might not know a thing about NFTs or blockchains or metaverses or what have you. And if you don’t know about these things, then you probably aren’t aware that Cardano utilizes a proof-of-stake protocol.

Whatever. The takeaway is that many people do care about what I just mentioned. Better yet, the folks behind the network are making all the right moves. So, why isn’t ADA swinging higher?

Nervous Times for Cardano Backers

I don’t usually sift through the cesspool of investment-related social media forums. However, a post on Reddit — under the subreddit r/CryptoCurrency — perfectly encapsulated my thoughts about digital land and the broader metaverse concept.

Per username “stlloydie,” “Without doing any research into it and just going with my gut (as a true crypto investor does) the whole idea sounds so ridiculously stupid you would have to be a moron to buy ‘fake land’ with real money.”

Then the Redditer added the punchline, “For this reason, it will likely be hugely profitable.”

Exactly! While I personally think, without any irony or nuanced undertone, that spending serious money on virtual real estate is absolutely bonkers, you can make money off this wild market. By this context alone, acquiring Cardano at a (relative) discount might make sense.

But the problem is that you can’t divorce cryptocurrencies from the market elements that govern asset valuations. Thus, while these earlier developments shot up the Cardano price, market sentiment quickly soured. In fact, I just submitted my weekly update on cryptos which featured a blurb on ADA. I warned readers about its volatile nature and sure enough, hours later, ADA is hurting.

True, cryptos trade chaotically and Cardano is no different. However, my concern is that the backers of ADA point to its myriad fundamental catalysts. Yet so far, none of these factors have convinced investors to stay in the game for greater returns later.

From what I’m witnessing over this past week, as soon as investors see green ink in Cardano or any other crypto, they’re out. They want their fiat (or stablecoins) and they’re heading for the nearest exit. If such sentiment continues, you don’t want to be the one holding the bag.

It’s All Relative

Over the course of the next several days (if not weeks or months), you’ll read about crypto pundits saying that the weak hands have been flushed out of the market. Therefore, with some patience, your position in Cardano (or insert favorite crypto here) will eventually rise in value.

That might be so, considering that we’re 55% down from all-time highs. However, such reasoning to imply that the bad news is fully baked in is relative.

While 55% down is a steep hemorrhaging, it’s not unusual for major cryptos to shed 80% during particularly savage bear markets. Considering that Cardano is a more speculative alternative crypto, it could fall even further — maybe 70%, 80%, 90% or greater.

Of course, I’m not hoping for that. But I also don’t want to give you a false sense of security. This is a dangerous time for cryptos, so you want to make sure that you’re making financial decisions based on what you’re comfortable with, not based on someone else’s possibly flawed opinions.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in ADA. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.

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