- More than 1,300 doses of Novavax’s (NVAX) Covid-19 vaccine have been given out in New Zealand in just two weeks
- The New Zealand government has bought 250,000 doses
- At below $75, aggressive investors ought to be considering NVAX stock
Slowly but surely, Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) seems to be finally delivering on the promise that had investors buying NVAX stock for more than $200 as recently as December.
The most recent news is that 1,205 first doses, 143 second doses, and 29 booster shots have been given out in the first two weeks they’ve been available to New Zealand’s citizenry.
Based on the 250,000 doses the New Zealand government has bought from Novavax, it will take years to get these doses in the arms of its people. As a result, they will have to accelerate the speed at which vaccines are given. However, that is not Novavax’s problem.
It has got bigger fish to fry in the U.S.
The last time I wrote about the company in mid-February, I said I was done with NVAX stock. Since then, it has lost another 14%. It is now trading under $75 as I write this. It is at the lowest point in the past 18 months.
If you’re an aggressive investor, now would be an excellent time to take a nibble out of Novavax stock. Here’s why.
NVAX Stock Waits on the U.S.
As I stated in February, the company does a terrible job disseminating good news like the kind out of New Zealand in early March. Without fear-mongering, it could have pointed out that the 7-day average of new Covid-19 community cases had hit a new high on the very same day its vaccine became available in the country.
You know, Novavax to the rescue and all that press release 101 stuff. But, hey, most investors have grown accustomed to Novavax’s management zigging when everyone else is zagging.
Somehow, someway, it appears that if Novavax just got out of its own way, the stock could rocket to $200 and beyond.
If you read Fortune’s Mar. 7 article about Novavax’s Covid-19 vaccine getting the green light from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), I don’t know how aggressive investors aren’t chomping at the bit.
Yes, Novavax has sorely disappointed shareholders over the past two years. Still, with the omicron BA.2 variant causing more than half the U.S. Covid-19 cases over the past week, there remains a need for vaccinations.
“‘In Europe, you see BA.2 becoming predominant and driving a resurgence, and the likelihood that will not happen in the US is pretty low, really,'” CNN reported former Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Tom Frieden said recently. “‘I do think part of the reason that we’re plateauing is that we’re about to start going up again.'”
Novavax’s Vaccine Is Time Tested
One group that could have their “come to Jesus” moment is the anti-vaxxers. As Fortune’s article reported, the “Novastans,” as they’re called, are far less resistant to the company’s vaccine because it uses the same protein-based technology as flu shots.
Fortune reported from its January interview with Silvia Taylor, Novavax’s senior vice president of global corporate affairs:
“Novavax’s vaccine offers something different; it is based on well-understood, protein-based technology that has been used for decades in vaccinations like flu, HPV and shingles.”
So, how many people could Novavax get to the table with its more traditional vaccine?
Approximately 66% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated, 77.5% have received at least one dose, and just 29.6% have gotten a booster shot. According to the Mayo Clinic’s Covid-19 data, the most significant opportunity to get the unvaccinated vaccinated is for people under the age of 50.
The state with the lowest rate for at least one dose is Wyoming, at 61.7% for those between the ages of 18 and 64. By focusing on the South and the Midwest, Novavax could make a dent in the number of people in America still unvaccinated.
An additional opportunity would be to get the rate of booster shots up. At less than 30%, that alone could be worth considerable revenue to Novavax. In Canada, where I live, 49% of the population over five has been boosted.
It’s Hard to Believe NVAX Stock Still Has a Shot
I would have been skeptical if you had told me two years ago that Covid-19 would still be going strong two years later. But, today, we know that this thing is hanging around like a bad smell.
As hard as it is to admit, Novavax appears to have overcome severe skepticism and is getting the last laugh by ultimately delivering on its objective of the U.S. FDA approval. But, of course, I don’t think anyone would have thought this was possible at the beginning of 2022.
While the U.S. population seems to have moved on from Covid-19, the virus hasn’t gotten the memo. Therefore, at some point, the FDA has to do the responsible thing and give Novavax its emergency use authorization.
So, if you are an aggressive investor, I don’t see how you don’t buy NVAX stock for under $75. Maybe Novavax doesn’t make a bundle of the approval, but it is hard to imagine the stock falling much lower than its $65.82 52-week low.
I used to be a believer. Then I became a disbeliever. However, I will ignore the adage, “Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me,” and suggest investors buy away.
I hope I don’t live to regret this.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.