Nvidia Stock Will Give Back Its Relief Rally Gains

NVDA stock - Nvidia Stock Will Give Back Its Relief Rally Gains

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is a company with strong fundamentals, but these weren’t the main driver of the NVDA stock rally last month. Rather, its bolt from around $215 per share on March 15, to prices nearing $290 per share on March 29, was entirely the product of market-related factors. That is, the relief rally stocks experienced after the U.S. Federal Reserve officially hiked interest rates for the first time since 2018. This helped to clear up some uncertainty, driving investors back into growth stocks hit hard by the prospect of more hawkish monetary policy.

But since the end of last month, this relief rally has petered out. Between recent comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, as well as the Fed’s March meeting minutes on April 6, concerns about changes in Fed policy are ratcheting back up. Rate hike fears are starting to again put pressure on growth stocks. In the case of this chip maker’s shares, they’ve dropped around 14.6% since March 29. If the market continues to react negatively to the latest Fed updates? It’s possible that Nvidia, like other growth/tech names, could give back more of their respective relief rally gains.

So, what’s the takeaway here? If you’ve been looking to enter a long-term position in NVDA stock, the opportunity to do so could soon emerge. Sure, a move back to around $215 per share wouldn’t make it cheap. It would still sport a premium valuation at that price level. At $215 per share, it would trade for around 37.9x estimated earnings ($5.68 per share) for this fiscal year. Still, this valuation may be reasonable if you are confident that this company will continue to deliver strong operating results.

Demand for its GPU chips remains strong among its data center and gaming end-users. It’s aggressively pursuing growth opportunities in end-user markets like artificial intelligence (AI), automobiles and even the metaverse. High growth from existing and emerging demand could enable it to sustain its current valuation. It may be enough to counter further multiple compression from rising interest rates. Maintaining its valuation, and moving higher on earnings growth, the stock makes its way toward its past high ($346.47 per share).

With this, the prospect of a pullback is a positive, not a negative. It’s not for certain that buying on the next bout of weakness will pay off immediately. In other words, I wouldn’t buy it on the expectation that it pops due to another relief rally. (NVDA stock could continue to deliver a choppy performance over the next few months). But if you’re looking to add this high-quality tech name as a buy-and-hold position? The opportunity to do so at a favorable entry price could soon open up.

On the date of publication, Thomas Niel did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

Thomas Niel, contributor for InvestorPlace.com, has been writing single-stock analysis for web-based publications since 2016.


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