Forecasting the direction of travel for the market in the short-term is more like heading to the casino than investing, but the current environment offers somewhat of a unique backdrop for picking stocks poised for a rally.
Uncertainty in the U.S. banking sector is putting a huge amount of pressure onto many banks. However, some are well positioned to navigate the choppy waters with ease. Additionally, inflation could cause credit card usage, and therefore debt, to rise. This creates a buoyant environment for card providers.
The backdrop to all of this will be the summer travel season. This is likely to be the final year of so-called revenge spending in the wake of Covid-19. Given that the labor market is still tight, consumers remain relatively confident about spending. That means summer vacations are likely high on the list of priorities, which should benefit the tourism industry.
The banking crisis together with the seasonal boost creates speculation that there could be some pockets of the market ready to deliver strong growth. Lets take a look at the top stocks poised for a rally.
Barclays (BCS)
Don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater springs to mind when it comes to the current banking crisis, and that sentiment could make Barclays (NYSE:BCS) one of the best stocks to buy for a summer rally. The British bank is in a stellar position to deliver impressive growth, particularly given its relatively low valuation right now.
Barclays’ U.K. banking arm has been reaping the rewards of higher interest rates. Credit card spending in the U.S. has been a boon for their top line, with the division posting revenue growth nearly 50% higher than last year. Their largest division, corporate and investment banking, is navigating choppy waters in the current environment. But, there is opportunity abound given that some players have left the space leaving market share up for grabs.
The group is also very well capitalized, meaning it can withstand significant shocks to the system. That kind of resilience should come with a hefty price tag, but Barclays is actually looking pretty cheap right now.
Visa (V)
Visa (NYSE:V) is in a sweet spot when it comes to the intersection of a cash-strapped consumer, and central banks raising interest rates. This makes it a good pick among stocks poised for a rally. The credit card company doesn’t actually lend money to its customers, instead it charges banks for moving funds. That means Visa isn’t on the hook if there’s a spate of defaults.
Visa’s business model is also an attractive one. The group makes money charging a service fee based on the value of transactions. That means the more people spend, the more Visa makes. Additional transactions come with little-to-no added costs, so as revenue grows so does the bottom line.
If conditions continue to worsen we could see consumers start to lean more heavily on their credit cards. Of course, a pullback in spending all together would be negative for Visa, but luckily the group’s strong cash flow puts it in a good position to navigate leaner times.
Airbnb (ABNB)
With the summer travel season upon us, it would be impossible to talk about stocks poised for a rally without Airbnb (NASDAQ:ABNB). The vacation rental company has become somewhat synonymous with travel, with $63.2 billion worth of bookings on its platform in 2022. This summer could be one of the last where people blow their savings in favor of a trip, but Airbnb is in a strong spot even as people start tightening their belts. The rise of the staycation is in part thanks to Airbnb, so whether it be a villa for a vacation abroad or a small home to rent for a mini-break, Airbnb will capture a large part of the travel market.
The group’s optimistic about the future as well, with double digit revenue growth expected in 2023. Even more crucial is its forecast for underlying cash profit margins of 35%. These rosy forecasts are part of the reason Airbnb is a rather expensive choice, with shares trading at 42-times earnings. That does add a layer of risk, particularly if travel starts to slow, but the group’s prospects look strong even in the face of turbulence ahead.
On the date of publication, Marie Brodbeck held Barclays. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
