A last-minute ceasefire pulls us back from the brink… the Dow surges 1,200 points… the S&P reclaims a critical line in the sand… Luke Lango says the AI bull market resumes today… and what investors should watch next

As I write on Wednesday, the markets are surging.

The Dow has jumped more than 1,200 points, the S&P 500 is up 2.5%, and the Nasdaq has rocketed more than 3% higher.

Meanwhile, oil prices are doing the opposite – plunging 16% on the day.

It’s all due to the two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran reached last night, with roughly 90 minutes to spare before President Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline.

If you read yesterday’s Digest, you know how close we came to the edge…

Trump had set a hard deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. forces had already struck military targets on Kharg Island the night before. Trump had posted an ominous warning on Truth Social: “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again.”

Then, at approximately 6:30 p.m., came the post that avoided the worst.

How the deal came together

Here’s what Trump posted on Truth Social:

Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.

Pakistan, which has been leading negotiations throughout this conflict, appears to have been the critical last-minute broker.

Prime Minister Sharif had publicly urged Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks to allow diplomacy to advance, and he simultaneously asked Iran to reopen the Strait.

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed on Wednesday that it had accepted the ceasefire. Talks are set to begin in Islamabad on Friday.

The language from Tehran came with some pointed caveats. “This does not signify the termination of the war,” Iran’s statement read. “Our hands remain upon the trigger, and should the slightest error be committed by the enemy, it shall be met with full force.”

Meanwhile, the Strait itself remains a complicated question…

Iran’s foreign minister confirmed that ships may transit the waterway over the next two weeks – but “via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations.”

Before this conflict, more than 100 ships passed through daily in a decades-old traffic system that required no such coordination. What those “technical limitations” mean in practice is not yet clear.

The U.S. military has halted all offensive operations against Iran, though defensive measures remain in effect. In fact, early this morning, both Israel and the United Arab Emirates sounded missile alerts despite the announced ceasefire – a reminder that in the Middle East, the gap between a declared peace and an actual one can be significant.

Still, the market is rejoicing

Today’s price action tells you everything about how much fear had been priced into assets over recent weeks.

Brent crude has plunged from around $110 to $95 as I write – on pace for its biggest single-day drop since COVID. And West Texas Intermediate is down roughly 16%.

Meanwhile, all three major indexes are surging. And something important is happening that goes beyond a single day’s headlines.

As of yesterday’s close, the S&P was trading below its 200-day moving average – a critical technical line that divides bull market behavior from bear market behavior. Senior market analyst Brian Hunt has written that stocks “below their 200-day moving average are ‘on the wrong side of the tracks.’ It’s the ugly part of town.”

Well, as you can see below, with this morning’s surge, we’re back in the pretty part.

This is big.

Markets that reclaim their 200-day MA after falling below it – especially on heavy volume and a fundamental catalyst – often see sustained follow-through. It’s not guaranteed, but we’re encouraged.

Meanwhile, the bond market is pricing in sunnier skies as well.

Treasury yields are falling as investors bet that lower energy costs could give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates later this year – a scenario that had looked increasingly slim just days ago when Brent crude was threatening to push toward $130.

So, is today a time to buy?

Yesterday, we featured our technology expert Luke Lango, editor of Innovation Investor, and his three-scenario framework for how this conflict would resolve.

He had assigned Outcomes 1 and 2 – a deal or a unilateral U.S. withdrawal – a combined probability of 80-85%.

This morning, Luke is calling it clearly: we got the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). Better still, in his view, it’s not a tactical pause – it’s the beginning of the end of the conflict.

Here’s Luke:

TACO Tuesday delivered. Trump “chickened out” last night with an apocalypse-averting Truth Social post that we think marks the beginning of the end of the Iran War.

We didn’t just get a TACO last night — we got the TACO. The big one. The one that ends the war.

In our view, the war is now effectively over. The AI bull market resumes today. And it is time to deploy the dry powder.

Luke’s confidence in that call rests on a detailed reading of Trump’s actual language – not just the headline.

He walks through it (Trump’s posts in bold):

• “We have already met and exceeded all Military objectives.” This is the victory declaration. Trump is publicly stating — on the record, with hundreds of ReTruths — that the military mission is complete…
• “Double sided CEASEFIRE.” This is not a pause, not a delay, not a suspension pending review. A ceasefire is a mutual agreement to stop fighting.
• “A 10 point proposal from Iran… almost all points agreed.” Iran came back with its own proposal. The U.S. considers it a workable basis. This is a deal being consummated, not a delay being manufactured.
• “Longterm PEACE with Iran and PEACE in the Middle East.” Trump is framing this as his legacy foreign policy achievement. You don’t frame a tactical delay as a legacy achievement.

In light of this, Luke is recommending that his subscribers buy the dip.

He sent out a handful of Buy Alerts this morning – but with a specific focus: AI and high-growth names only. Not the broader economy.

He writes that oil prices will fall, but not to pre-war levels like $65. It’ll be low enough to recharge AI stocks but not revitalize the flagging U.S. consumer.

Back to Luke on how this war has changed the investment landscape:

The bifurcation in markets becomes permanent as a result of this war. 

The AI Boom and other high-growth investment themes are the stocks we want to own as the fear premium comes out and the fundamental premium comes back in. 

The rest of the economy will continue to struggle.

For subscribers of Innovation Investor looking for Luke’s specific positioning guidance, click here to access this morning’s new recommendations. And to learn more about joining Luke in Innovation Investor, click here.

Why we’re mostly – but not entirely – celebrating

I agree with Luke’s analysis, and I’m most encouraged by the idea of Trump wanting to secure his legacy as a peacemaker in the region. That’s a significant motivator for keeping this ceasefire alive.

Still, this is the Middle East. And two weeks is a short runway.

That doesn’t rain on today’s rally. The ceasefire is real, the market reaction is rational, and the technical picture has meaningfully improved.

But if you’re buying today, it’s worth a moment of forethought: are you making a more speculative trade you’ll want to exit if the next two weeks disappoint? Or are you adding a longer-term holding you’ll keep even if volatility returns?

Knowing the answer – and your exit plan – before you pull the trigger today is the best way to sidestep potential regret tomorrow.

The bottom line

It’s a big day…

The ceasefire that few thought would arrive in time actually did, and the markets are responding accordingly.

We’ll be watching the Islamabad talks closely when they begin Friday, and we’ll keep you updated as the picture develops.

But for now, let’s take a breath and appreciate the fact that the worst-case scenario didn’t happen.

Have a good evening,

Jeff Remsburg

P.S. One thing we’re hearing more and more from readers lately…

“It feels like the market is moving faster than ever.”

And they’re right. Between AI-driven moves and sharp reversals, the old buy-and-hold approach is getting harder to rely on by itself. That’s why our colleagues at Stansberry Research just put together a new event, Market Tremors 2026, focused on a different approach — one built around identifying short-term opportunities and acting on them quickly using alternative data.

It’s a very different mindset… but one that may be better suited for today’s market environment. If you’ve been feeling that shift, it’s worth checking out.