Here is an odd truth: the biggest loser from Facebook Inc’s (NASDAQ:FB) third quarter report is Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR). Sound weird? Check the stock prices. FB stock is down about 2%. TWTR stock is down more than 3%.
Why is that the case? In response to recent concerns regarding Russian intervention in the 2016 Presidential Election, Facebook management laid out a plan on its third quarter earnings call to transform the Facebook platform into the most transparent advertising channel in the world.
The plan requires huge investments into safety and security, and that will hurt profits. That’s why FB stock is down.
But the plan also ensures that Facebook will remain the go-to digital advertising platform into the foreseeable future. In fact, the plan may actually widen Facebook’s digital advertising lead. That’s why TWTR stock is down more.
Plus, FB stock has a reasonable valuation. TWTR stock has a nonsensical valuation.
All in all, the investment takeaway remains the same as it has for several months: buy FB stock, sell TWTR stock.
Facebook Just Set the Security Gold Standard
The theme of Facebook’s third quarter conference call was safety.
CEO Mark Zuckerberg hammered in the point that he was dead serious about protecting the Facebook community and emphasizing safety over profits. Management laid out a plan to turn Facebook into the most transparent advertising channel out there. The plan involved doubling the safety and security headcount over the next year and growing expenses by 45-60%.
In a digital advertising era muddied in controversy over fake news and malicious usage, it is refreshing to see one of the leading players in the space take serious and profit-hindering steps to rectify those issues. But it is also much more than refreshing. Facebook just set the new gold standard.
And that is really bad for Twitter and TWTR stock.
Twitter is coming out of several quarters of huge expense cutting. Because Twitter’s ad revenue growth turned negative and the company was losing top-line momentum, management turned their focus towards gutting the expense base. They did that, and now it is adequately small enough to the point where profitability might actually be possible soon.
This outside chance of GAAP profitability in the near-term is why TWTR stock rallied so much after its last earnings report.
But Twitter will now be forced to follow in Facebook’s footsteps and up security spend to create a safer, more transparent platform. If Twitter doesn’t, then the platform is at serious risk of losing more advertisers to Facebook.
Consequently, it is very likely Twitter starts spending big on safety and security. That throws near-term profitability hopes out the window. With those hopes gone, TWTR stock should fall by quite a bit.
Bottom Line on TWTR Stock
Facebook’s report was also a bad reflection on Twitter for many other reasons. Facebook maintained a mid-to-high teens monthly user growth rate versus 4-5% growth for Twitter. Daily usage is up 16% on Facebook, versus just 14% at Twitter despite a much smaller base. Ad revenues soared nearly 50% higher at Facebook, while they are still falling at Twitter.
Twitter is still the ugly duckling in the digital advertising world. Boosted profit margins were making that ugly duckling look prettier, but now the prospect of boosted margins is all but gone. TWTR stock, consequently, looks as ugly as ever.
At more than 50-times this year’s earnings estimate, the valuation on TWTR stock isn’t too pretty, either.
This stock got a nice bump, but will grind lower from here. The $20 level is a level which TWTR stock has failed to consistently trade above since late 2015. That trend will remain in tact into the foreseeable future.
As of this writing, Luke Lango was long FB.