I love consumer staples stocks — foods, beverages, soaps. But I’ll admit, I’m a little worried, because everybody seems to be crowding into these “defensive” shelters right now.
In yesterday’s trading, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLP) hit a new all-time high. This is just the latest in a string of fresh peaks the fund has scaled this spring. If the Dow had kept pace with XLP since the October 2007 market top, the venerable industrial average would now stand north of 16,000!
Naturally, I’m delighted the consumer staples exchange-traded fund (ETF) is doing so well. However, there are two flies in the soup.
First, safety is getting expensive. Take spice maker McCormick & Company, Inc. (NYSE: MKC), for example. At yesterday’s close, the shares had soared 60% (not counting dividends) in the past 21 months.
The company’s earnings have risen, too, of course. But not as fast as the stock. Thus, MKC’s price-earnings ratio, based on trailing 12 months’ net, has catapulted to 18.6 times. That’s rich for a plodding, mundane business (no offense to the good folks at McCormick!).
The other problem with skyrocketing staples is that investors often huddle for safety when they know the market is overbought and due for a pullback. I still expect the current rally to last a few more sessions. However, I believe we’re approaching the most significant dip since last summer — probably 5%-10% on the blue-chip indexes.
Nimble traders might consider putting on a few short hedges (or writing call options) when and if the S&P 500 nears its April 29 high at 1,363. For the rest of us, this is a time to wait patiently for the market to hand us a wider assortment of buying opportunities. They’re coming, soon!