The headlines are screaming that the Greek debt issue is resolved, and it’s time to move on. This is simply not true, and European authorities have made the crisis worse by creating a serious moral hazard by pledging help to Greece.
The nature of the aid and the trigger for it are still unclear — classic European political fudge — and the current actions to backstop Greece’s ability to borrow will now lead to similar demands from Portugal and Spain. The Irish could use help, too, but are too stubborn and angry at the rest of Europe to ask.
And, across the Channel, the Tories are leading Labor, and everyone believes this slate of Conservatives are the most anti-euro in a generation with punters (that is British for gamblers) seeing the pound taking a massive hit if they do well enough to either rule or for force a seriously divided Parliament on the nation with the small party Liberals having the deciding block of votes.
So how to play this?
Do not trade currencies. Unless you are a fairly expert day trader living behind screens, you can except to have to make a run for more Red Bull if you go this route.
Instead, play the foreign currency ETFs, and if you are risk tolerant, buy puts and calls on them.
Yes, puts and calls are a short-term tool for trading an event or crisis. But they can also be used for longer-term positions.
I’m an old-fashioned kind of a guy; I do fundamentals. And the longer-term trend here, in addition to short-term headlines, is a declining euro and pound. Over time, more euros will be printed to help solve the debt problem, plus political confidence has dawned in the euro due to the continuing muddle about help or no help for Greece and beyond.
Britain will have to devalue the pound to get out form under its deficits and give its economy a shot in the arm.
I have a three-proged trading strategy for you today:
1. Buy puts on the ETF for the euro, the CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE).
2. Buy puts on the ETF for the pound, the CurrencyShares British Pound (FXB)
3. Buy calls on the dollar ETF, the DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP).
There will be a lot of short-term volatility, but longer term, the euro and pound should be going down.
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