Morgan Stanley: What to Expect Next From the Government Shutdown

NewLettersMorgan Stanley has issued a note about the U.S. government shutdown — and here are some quick takeaways from the analysis.

From Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Vincent Reinhart (via Business Insider):

  • A 15 basis point drag on fourth-quarter real GDP growth, at an annual rate, for every week of shutdown as furloughed workers do not put in usual hours.
  • Most data releases delayed, including the employment situation for September that was scheduled for release on Friday.
  • The quality of some official data to degrade as the shutdown lengthens because workers will not be in the field to collect the raw information.
  • Treasury payments to be processed, including principal and interest, as its fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve, remains open for business.

Reinhard estimates the shutdown to last no more than a week.

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