Morgan Stanley has issued a note about the U.S. government shutdown — and here are some quick takeaways from the analysis.

From Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. economist Vincent Reinhart (via Business Insider):

• A 15 basis point drag on fourth-quarter real GDP growth, at an annual rate, for every week of shutdown as furloughed workers do not put in usual hours.
• Most data releases delayed, including the employment situation for September that was scheduled for release on Friday.
• The quality of some official data to degrade as the shutdown lengthens because workers will not be in the field to collect the raw information.
• Treasury payments to be processed, including principal and interest, as its fiscal agent, the Federal Reserve, remains open for business.

Reinhard estimates the shutdown to last no more than a week.