There are plenty of polls, statistical models, and political pundits trying to handicap this fall’s presidential race between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney. A recently released prediction model, with an outstanding track record, goes against what many of those polls are currently saying.
According to a forecast model created by two University of Colorado professors, Mitt Romney will wind up winning the fall election, earning 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218. It takes 270 votes to clinch the presidency. This flies in the face of current polling and predictions, which show Obama with a slight lead in most polls and with a more advantageous electoral vote base to build towards 270 electoral votes.
The University of Colorado model takes into account economic factors from all 50 states. Their model is the only one that factors in more than one state-level economic indicator — both national unemployment rates and per capita income. Based on their model, Romney would win every state currently considered a swing state — Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Colorado — en route to winning the White House.
While no prediction model is perfect, the University of Colorado forecast has an impressive history so far. Since 1980, it has correctly predicted the winner of each presidential election.
— Benjamin Nanamaker, InvestorPlace Money & Politics Editor
The opinions contained in this column are solely those of the writer.
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