TWTR’s Unbelievable Accomplishment

While it seemed like the broad market volatility took down every stock in its wake, there were actually a few that managed to sidestep the carnage. And believe it or not, Twitter (TWTR), a stock that has largely lagged its peers since going public in late 2013, was one of the few technology companies that accomplished that feat.

A lot of that has to do with TWTR reporting its first-ever quarterly profit on February 8, with earnings of $0.19 a share besting the Street’s estimate by $0.05. The stock gapped higher as a result, rallying as much as 30% before closing the day up 12% and at its best level since 2015.

But what’s even more impressive here is the fact the stock has barely given up any ground since. It has continued to push higher, gaining another 9.5% before dipping back slightly in the end of the week.

A Long Road Ahead

Fundamentally, the company still has a lot of work to do in order for the platform to be considered a major player in the future of social media. Even CEO Jack Dorsey recently discussed making the experience simpler for both the user and the advertiser. I personally use Twitter several times a day and I will admit that I do sometimes feel lost. An easier approach could help increase the number of users, which in turn would lead to more advertisers willing to pay for the eyeballs.

I am a bit skeptical of whether or not the company can get to where it needs to be in the coming quarters. That said, the action in the stock is certainly worth watching.

There is one factor that can be considered off the table for now, though — TWTR being sold. Dorsey has made remarks that he feels there is a lot of strength in the company’s independence, which to me sounds like a leader who is not looking to sell in the near future.

There is no question that this stock has been on an incredible run in recent months — it has doubled in price since the start of October. Whether or not TWTR warrants trading near $34 is up for debate, but what I do believe is that buying here is not the best strategy.

A pullback following the recent strength is likely to occur this quarter, so the risk-versus-reward characteristics are not very attractive right now. If you’re looking to chase the breakout, I think prices around $30 would be acceptable.

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