This is another very busy earnings week, with dozens of S&P 500 companies reporting every day. Using our performance and sentiment filters, we’ve come up with a bearish play on Royal Caribbean Cruises (NYSE:RCL).

RCL reports on Thursday before the open, with analysts looking for $1.87 per share, a 14% increase from a year ago. Last quarter, the company missed earnings estimates after seven straight quarterly beats.

The problem with RCL is its recent performance after reporting. The pattern is a run-up into earnings followed by a decline after the numbers hit the Street.

Last quarter, the stock ran up 6% in the week before reporting, then dropped 34% in less than two weeks afterward. In April, the shares once again ran up 6% in the week before, traded sideways in the two weeks after, and then fell away. In January, the stock was trading at a six-year high before, then dropped 9% in three days following, the report. You get the idea.

Currently, the shares are on a huge run, gaining more than 40% off the October 3 low. But the declining 100-day moving average is now in play as potential resistance. The last time the shares closed a day above the 100-day was in early March.

Sentiment toward RCL is mixed, with seven of 12 analysts rating the stock a “Buy.” Short interest is unremarkable to the point that a short-squeeze is unlikely. So, we see enough optimism to unwind into selling.

Trying to predict how RCL will do in this depressed economy is a tricky business. On one hand, you could argue that high unemployment and a weak economy means less discretionary income available for vacations and recreation. But that’s hardly an insightful or surprising argument, so expectations may be ratcheted lower.

That’s why we’re going with the tape on this trade. The stock tends to run up into earnings and reverse lower after the fact. With a strong rally this month and potential trendline resistance in play, we like history repeating itself this quarter as well. Buy the RCL Nov 29 Puts for two bucks or less.