That was great advice for RIM, considering Charles already made his buy call on this pick. But the same discipline is necessary for any potential investment, too. Don’t just wish away the negatives or view a company with rose-colored glasses. Think pessimistically and ask how bad things could get if you turn out to be wrong.
Take my Apple buy, for instance. I didn’t buy because I believed that absurd $1,000 talk from Piper Jaffray. I bought because I figured even if the market cratered, the forward P/E of 10 coupled with the stock buyback and dividend plans gave me some stability. Plus, the fact that Apple itself is seen as a safe haven is in the stock’s favor. Worst case would be a botched iPhone event in the fall and an ugly equities market scaring folks out of even Apple, sending it as low as $400 in a doomsday scenario.
Think it would be crazy for Apple to go that low? So do I. But at least I entertained the possibility for a moment before placing a buy order.
As you bottom-fish for bargains, keep this exercise in mind. Take the opposite point of view and go worst-case scenario. Either it will scare you straight, or make you feel justified in your call.
You may not even have to be as apocalyptic as I was on Apple. Hell, just mulling the idea that the status quo for HPQ, RIMM or NOK may never change should be enough to make some traders think twice.
And that kind of cold realism can help you avoid a loser in the days ahead, too.
Think Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) is going to bounce back from its 52-week low and recent store closure news? Change your viewpoint and consider what the future holds if there’s no light beyond this short-term profitability boost (and read Dan Burrows’ recent bearish article on ANF).
Patting yourself on the back for buying Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) at $26? Eager for more gains now that it’s in the $30s and the IPO pessimism has faded? Well, just make sure you’re honest with yourself… because as the lock-up ends, 1.7 billion shares will become eligible for insider selling. We also haven’t seen a single quarterly report or earnings call yet. The downside risks are real.
All stocks have risks. And in this challenging market, you have to start first by acknowledging what kind of damage you’d be left with if your turnaround hopes never transpire.
There’s a difference between a high-quality company trading at a discount and a fire-sale company that’s on the verge of the junk heap.
Jeff Reeves is the editor of InvestorPlace.com, and the author of “The Frugal Investor’s Guide to Finding Great Stocks.” Write him at firstname.lastname@example.org or follow him on Twitter via @JeffReevesIP. As of this writing, Jeff Reeves was long AAPL.