Has The Container Store (TCS) Hit Rock Bottom?

Advertisement

Shares of The Container Store Group (TCS) got walloped on Tuesday, losing nearly one-quarter of its market value in a single session to 52-week lows after the company issued disappointing quarterly results.

Investors shunned the stock in response to weak revenue results and a disappointing sales forecast, but it has been tough sledding for TCS ever since its IPO less than a year ago, evidenced by the 65% year-to-date decline. The retailer, which makes home-organization supplies, has been caught in a cyclone of heavy industry promotions, increased competition and a finicky consumer whose pulse the The Container Store has been unable to read.

Container StoreTCS seems to be fertile ground for an activist investor, as little shareholder value has been created since the stock’s market debut last fall. And while it’s tough to say whether or not TCS has hit bottom, it’s evident that there’s no catalyst in sight to give investors hope for a rebound any time soon.

Sales Slump

The Container Store execs didn’t blame poor performance on a “retail funk” this time, like they did in the first quarter before being called out on it, but it’s clear that this same stench lingered for the second quarter. While fiscal second quarter adjusted EPS of 11 cents per share met consensus, revenue of $193.2 million missed the $199.1 million analyst target.

The Container Store also came up short on the most closely watched metric in retail, with comparable-store sales falling 0.4% on expectations for a moderate increase. The fact that TCS was unable to meet even modest guidance is worrisome and exacerbates an already troubling trend of declining comparable-store sales at The Container Store.

Q2 Fiscal 2014 *Q1 Fiscal 2014 Q4 2013 Q3 2013
-0.4% -0.8% +1.4% +4.7%

*-In fiscal Q1, The Container Store broke its streak of 15 straight quarters of comparable-store sales growth.

The retailer is operating in a highly promotional industry environment, one in which it has largely remained sidelined. According to company execs on the earnings call: “We’re not promoting as much as I believe the rest of the industry is right now, [and] we are not overly proud [of] that.”

Indeed, rather than discounting, The Container Store seems to be targeting customers with a $2,000 average ticket size as it pushes its customized organizational service dubbed Contain Home, which is available in select markets and will be rolled out across the U.S. by year-end 2015.

It’s also looking to its loyalty program, which currently comprises half of total sales, to turn sales around. However, CFO Jodi Taylor noted on the earnings call that “our average customer doesn’t shop as much as we’d like … she’s in two to three times a year.”

Meanwhile, the company is committed to at least 12% annual square footage growth even as it lowered its fiscal year 2014 financial guidance. The Container Store is projecting net sales in the $800 million to $810 million range compared to previous estimates of $830 million on the high end. Comparable-store sales will continue their plight and are expected to be flat to slightly lower — also worse than originally thought.

Finicky Consumers Strike Again

The Container Store is not an outlier, as industry peers in the home-retail space are similarly facing headwinds. Pier 1 Imports (PIR), for instance, managed to grow its top line in the fiscal second quarter but fell short on bottom-line growth, with profits down nearly 50%, leading the specialty retailer to lower its full-year financial guidance.

Pier 1, whose promotional activity contributed to a 190-basis-point decline in gross profit as a percentage of sales, has been experiencing a drop in foot traffic and investing to build up its e-commerce business in the interim.

It’s not that consumers aren’t shopping, but they do seem to be a lot more picky about where they spend their discretionary dollars.

High-end retailer Williams-Sonoma (WSM), for instance, grew both its top and bottom lines in the second quarter. It also returned $90 million to investors via share buybacks and dividends, and the stock is up more than 20% in the past year. Home-furnishings retailer Restoration Hardware (RH) is coming off a record second quarter, and RH is up more than 30% over the past 12 months.

One bright spot for The Container Store, in addition to the forthcoming holiday season, is that it will be going up against comps from one of the most brutal winters in history, so improved weather could attract more shoppers to its stores.

Conclusion

There aren’t any signs currently that an activist investor is sniffing around TCS stock and calling for an immediate takeover, so the prospects look grim for shareholder value in the near future. For now, investors are better off leaving this container on the shelf where they found it and investing in some of the better-performing retailers such as Williams-Sonoma or Restoration Hardware.

As of this writing, Gerelyn Terzo did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Create your free online surveys with SurveyMonkey , the world’s leading questionnaire tool.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2014/10/the-container-store-tcs/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC