Trade of the Day: Goldman Sachs (GS)

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The S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) was squeezed past 15 again, as the bears pushed a high of 15.65. The bulls held the 15 level for the 19th-straight session, and I’ve been firm that I won’t turn bearish until the VIX closes above 17.50. The bulls aren’t out of the woods, however, as they need to get the VIX below 13.50-12.50 to get new market highs in play.

I spend a ton of time analyzing the VIX because it continues to be a reliable indicator. The market noise and selloff hype picked up steam last week, but the overall results show a still-bright picture. Of course, the Fed talk of a possible interest hike reached a boil following Friday’s jobs report. The headlines tilted toward job growth acceleration in May, with wages ticking higher.

The good news had the talking heads predicting an interest rate hike in September, while others were guessing for a year-end bump. From where I sit, the financial stocks have some of corporate America’s best balance sheets following the bank stress tests from earlier this year and that they would benefit from a rising-rate environment. The group was strong on Friday.

Goldman Sachs (GS), the heaviest Dow component, triggered a fresh 52-week peak just south of $212 on Friday. While I don’t usually trade options on stocks over $100, I do like the GS July 220 calls (GS150717C00220000) as a possible short-term trade. The GS July 225 calls (GS150717C00225000) also look tempting.

Shares of “Golden Slacks” could make a run into the $230-$240 zone by mid-July, and the aforementioned options would be gold mines on the possibly explosive move. If shares were to reach $230 by mid-July, the aforementioned options would be $10 and $5 in the money, respectively. This would represent massive triple-digit gains, and the risk/reward looks compelling.

The big debate besides interest rates and Greece is how overvalued the market is. While it makes great fodder, even if the market is overvalued, it has been at more extreme levels in past years. Price action is more important than peoples’ opinions on the market.

The suits-and-ties, celebrities and money-fund managers have repeatedly said a market “top” is in during the past few years. But consider the number of times they have changed their minds after begging for a 10% correction. However, when there has been a 5%-8% dip, these so-called market pundits have failed to step up to the plate.

Right now, the S&P 500 currently trades at 18 or 19 times earnings. The Nasdaq is trading at roughly 33 times earnings. At the peak of the dot-com bubble back in 2000, the S&P was trading at a much higher double-digit earnings multiple, while tech was pushing a multiple in the high hundreds. In other words, the market can continue to be overvalued, and is nowhere near past levels of overvalued hype.

This week promises to be exciting, as does the rest of June, and I’ll be watching the VIX closely. The current sector rotation and divergence has Wall Street confused once again, but they don’t study the market like I do. Retail and restaurant stocks have taken a beating on the rise in oil prices, or so analysts say, but there continues to be strength in the financial and small-cap stocks.

While I won’t be afraid to go short or use put options if and when a mighty selloff arrives, I still remain bullish.

A quick update for anyone who took the Opko Health (OPK) trade with me. In an all-stock deal, on June 4, Opko Health announced that acquired Bio-Reference Laboratories (BRLI) for roughly $1.5 billion. Bio-Reference Laboratories shareholders will get 2.75 shares of Opko Health stock for each share of BRLI they own.

In these types of deals, the acquiring company usually sees its stock price decline, and the resulting pullback in OPK took me out of the trade. Be sure to exit positions, as this news changes my short-term outlook, but this was a great acquisition for OPK and one that will transform the company. I will be back to play OPK once the dust settles from the merger news. For now, you should be able to get out for around breakeven.

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Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2015/06/trade-of-the-day-goldman-sachs-gs-vix/.

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