Trade of the Day: Dollar Tree (DLTR)

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Stocks finished measurably lower on Monday without any clear catalyst from the newswires or macroeconomic reports. There was just selling from sun-up to sun-down. As the baseball announcers say after a three-pitch strike out, it was “Good morning, good afternoon and good night!”

Health care was the main battering ram for the bears, as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) sank 6.3% after falling 13% last week. Prescription drug price concerns are a main cause. Yesterday, all 18 Democratic members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform called for a subpoena to force Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (VRX) to turn over documents related to massive drug-price increases earlier this year.

However, never forget that the drug lobby owns Congress, lock stock and pill jar. There is no way any Congress is going to turn on its funding source. They will find a way to bury these concerns like they always have.

Federal Reserve policy did make headlines, too. Lift-off timing speculation continued, with two Fed speakers touching on the subject.

New York Fed President William Dudley expects the Fed to tighten this year and reiterated that the pace of policy normalization will be gradual. He believes that the influence of oil and the dollar on inflation will be transitory and noted that the Fed will not put much weight on market-based inflation gauges. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans reiterated his dovish position, stating that the Fed should take an “extra patient approach” that would include a later lift-off and gradual tightening.

As for economic data, new reports showed that U.S. income and spending both increased in August. The spending increase was slightly higher than expected, while income increase was slightly lower. July saw upward revisions for both income and spending. The housing market was cause for some concern. A report showed that pending home sales declined 1.4% in August, well below expectations, though the index remains up 6% year-over-year.

In Washington, D.C., the surprise announcement that House Speaker John Boehner will resign at the end of October has generated concerns of a more contentious fiscal battle in Washington. His departure could affect debt-ceiling and government-funding talks, which are expected in December or early 2016.

There was also some discussion of the potential impact on the Fed, which could be considering lift-off at the same time.

And finally, let’s mix in some Saudi Arabia news. An unnamed Saudi prince reportedly sent two letters that essentially call for a palace coup to other members of the royal family. Moreover, Bloomberg reported that the Saudis are on track to sell $70 billion worth of U.S. and eurozone securities to help deal with budget issues. This could be a very material problem for stocks, as that is a lot of paper to unload in a weak market.

I’ve been warning of the possibility that Wall Street is already in a bear market—even though very few veteran observers seem to be willing to say that. You know my evidence includes the fact that the S&P 500 has fallen from an all-time high level under its 12-month average at the end of a month. That was true in August…and now it’s about to be true two months in a row here in September.

I also suspected that the third week of September could bring the start of real trouble for the market, and it looks like that view is panning out, too. I will try to play counter-trend reversals from time to time…but today I’m recommending a bearish play.

Trade of the Day: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is a discount retailer that my Trader’s Advantage subscribers have traded long and short many times in the past. It is likely to come down to its five-year trendline in the next month or two. DLTR is just completing a short uptick higher, and now bears will likely push it back down.

Short (sell to open) DLTR at $68.80 limit, good till canceled (i.e., at $68.80 or more). If filled, cover all at target $61.50 and set stop at $72.90, good after 11 a.m. ET only.

Jon Markman writes a daily trading newsletter, Trader’s Advantage, and CounterPoint Options, a service geared towards helping individual traders make steady, consistent profits with the VIX. Follow him on Twitter for his latest take on markets and innovation, and be sure to check out his Top Stock for 2015 here.


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