After falling below its major moving averages last week, the broad market (as represented by the benchmark S&P 500 index) has logged a 2.5% gain over the past three trading sessions. Given the high probability for an end-of-year rally, which tends to happen almost every year, I think that the market will probably continue to rise over the course of the next week and into the beginning of January.

With the Christmas holiday approaching and the shortened trading week, volume has been relatively light, which is helping to facilitate the rally. Also, most professionals have already left for vacation and are not on the trading floor — which means that amateurs are likely doing most of the buying.

While my indicators are neutral to slightly bullish, an upgrade from Friday’s neutral-to-bearish readings, it’s my opinion that this is not a sustainable rally. After last week’s drubbing, the major indices fell into oversold territory in the short term, and now we’re seeing a bounce back from the 2,000 level on the S&P. Basically, the selling appeared to be somewhat overdone, so we’ll likely see a continued rally for the next several days.

However, there are so many signs that the market is forming a “top” that I would not expect the bullish bias to last for very long. The Advance/Decline Index remains weak, meaning that there are more stocks declining than there are stocks that are rising, and roughly 75% of stocks are trading below their respective 200-day moving averages. In a sense, the S&P 500 is actually lying to us, because it’s a very narrow group of stocks that are continuing to move the index higher.

However, adding to the bearish case, many other stocks are already in bear-market territory, including the largest company in the world by market cap — Apple (AAPL) — which is down 20% from its 52-week high of $134.54. Smaller companies aren’t fairing any better, as the Russell 2000 small-cap index remains mired in a downtrend of its own, having lost close to 12% from its 52-week peak in June.

These factors, along with the bearish action in the transportation sector, as represented by the Dow Jones Transportation Index (DJT), all point to a market that is getting really long in the tooth and looks as if it’s getting ready to roll over.

Now, the commodity market, via the Bloomberg Commodity Index ($BCOM), looks to me as if it is starting to get pretty sold out, and it appears to be close to forming a floor of support. I think gold may have bottomed as well, but bottoms take a long time to form. Silver is probably getting close to a bottom also…but, again, it could take a while before these precious metals resume any kind of uptrend.

With underlying market fundamentals still weak overall, investors should go into 2016 with a very defensive bias. While I am skeptical of the mild rally that is currently underway, use this opportunity to make some quick upside and take profits on any bullish trades that are showing gains.

There is an interesting space that looks to be even more bullish than the rest in this period, and that is the iShares US Medical Devices ETF (IHI). I like the medical devices space long term because the aging population means it will continue to do well.  Additionally, Congress delayed the medical device tax, which gives this ETF a further boost.

You could buy IHI shares, of course, but my favorite way to trade is by writing options, or selling to open them. Writing naked puts is a bullish strategy because you sell to open the put and collect a premium for doing so. Then, as the underlying asset appreciates, the value of the put option erodes and ideally expires worthless, allowing you to keep 100% of the premium that you collected at the start of the trade.

Here’s how I’m playing this:

Sell to open the IHI Jan. 15th (2016) $115 put at about $0.40 or more.

While I write naked puts on margin, you can actually do it as a cash-secured transaction as long as you have enough unallocated capital to buy 100 shares of the underlying stock or ETF for every 1 naked put you write if the shares are “put” to you. That is the risk of naked puts. Typically if the stock or ETF trades below your strike price for a sustained period of time – in the case of IHI that is $115 – there is significant risk you will be “put” the shares, or forced to buy them at the strike price.

Sometimes I don’t mind be put the shares if it’s an equity I like longer term, which I do for IHI. But if you don’t want to assume that risk, I have provided a stop loss to cover, or buy back to close, the naked put if IHI trades below $114.50.

Remember, U.S. markets will close early at 1:00 p.m. ET today for Christmas Eve, and they will remain closed all day on Friday for the Christmas holiday. Look for the next Trade of the Day to hit your inbox on Monday, Dec. 28.

If this strategy intrigues you, you can find other naked put ideas on InvestorPlace.com.

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Trester has been trading options since the first exchanges opened in 1973 with a winning streak that goes back to 1984 with money-doubling average annual profits since 1990. Try Power Options Weekly today and receive 2 weeks for the price of 1 for only $19.95.