4 Blue-Chip “Dogs of the Dow” to Buy or Sell

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The so-called Trump Rally hasn’t been a land of equal opportunity when it comes to which blue-chip stocks have been a part of this inclusive group—and stocks which have been deported or segregated to below market returns.

4 Blue-Chip "Dogs of the Dow" to Buy or Sell
Source: Shutterstock

The following list is made up of a few names pulled straight from the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which are trading either mostly flat or showing losses since the election.

The defiant price behavior flies in the face of the “pro-business and re-inflation” narrative, which has lit a match under the market and propelled the DJ-30 to gains of around 8% since Trump’s surprise win.

More ironic, some of these newly-minted Dogs of the Dow, or more aptly “Dow-nald,” might even be considered surprising in their recent relative weakness. But are these blue chips really dogs under the new Trump regime or is a market that’s said to be always right, actually on the verge of being wrong?

Let’s examine each of these blue chips off and on the price chart and determine for ourselves if these stocks are offering bulls or bears an opportunity and locate an options-based strategy for each to better and serve and protect those investments.

Blue-Chip Stock #1: Cisco (CSCO)

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Source: Charts by TradingView

CNBC’s James Cramer, whose charitable trust owns CSCO stock, agrees. The ex-fund manager and host of Mad Money updated his legion of fans with, “Cisco’s business is good; that stock is a buy” on Monday.

Additionally, with shares finally on the mend since Election Day, sporting an above-market 3.3% dividend and the potential for favorable tax treatment and cash repatriation, CSCO shares look attractive.

And to add a hint of color to Cramer’s quick nod considering Cisco’s increased focus in growth areas like the cloud and systems security (and CSCO stock basing for the past six months on top of a massive two-year base breakout), this blue chip looks like a “buy, buy, buy!”

Reviewing the options on CSCO, I like the April $28/$32 collar. Priced for essentially even money with the premiums offsetting one another, you can either buy the stock for $30.53, or have a protective hedged position that guarantees you’ll sleep better in case a bearish trade war erupts.

Blue-Chip Stock #2: Exxon Mobil (XOM)

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Source: Charts by TradingView

From OPEC agreeing to production cuts late last year, to the company’s now former CEO named Secretary of State and maybe even Tuesday’s profit beat, you’d think XOM stock would be the envy of investors. But since the election shares of XOM are off roughly 3%!

Even a recent very bullish-looking weekly base failed to bring in a bid to XOM shares. Shares of Exxon Mobil are now testing the former cup’s lows. Some bargain-hunting might come in to support XOM stock as it enters oversold territory, but ultimately I see this blue chip breaking lower.

Checking the options board of XOM with shares at $82.95, I like the 3 March $80/$78 bear put spread as an initial (and affordable) way to position as a bear.

Priced for 33 cents, Exxon Mobil does need to trade down 4% over the next month to break even on an expiration basis. But pressure, sooner rather than later, should allow for profits to begin building — and an opportunity to make a nice adjustment to your own net income.

Blue-Chip Stock #3: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

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Source: Charts by TradingView

In under a year from August 2015 through July 2016, shares of this blue chip tacked on roughly 50% to hit new all-time-highs. The staunch performance was matched by equally impressive, consistent earnings beats.

Of late it’s been a different story, though. Weakness in JNJ stock has been attributed to the company’s proposed $30 billion acquisition of Swiss-based biopharmaceutical outfit Actelion and modestly weak sales guidance this past week.

For many JNJ investors, the premium bid appears expensive. But longer term, the deal should help boost the company’s growth rate past this past decade’s 6% level and reinforce JNJ as a solid, lower-risk income generating machine with upside potential.

Some of JNJ’s capital appreciation could be just around the corner. Currently, a lengthy corrective pullback is beginning to look attractive as JNJ tests its former highs and 38% retracement level. Stochastics are still turning lower. It’s not ideal and is giving me reason to back away from a hedged and more overtly bullish JNJ stock position. However, generating a bit of income via the options looks approachable with the March $110/$105 bull put spread.

Trading for 60 to 65 cents with JNJ at $133.22, the trader is in position to receive the credit during the next dividend cycle. The income idea is fractionally below the 80 cent payout, but does allow for roughly 3% of additional downside protection that’s also much closer to technical support.

Blue-Chip Stock #4: Walmart (WMT)

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Source: Charts by TradingView

The bad news for investors maybe eyeing value is despite Walmart stock’s weakness, the environment off and on the price chart still looks vulnerable for the world’s largest retailer.

For one, there’s escalating tensions surrounding trade wars with Mexico and/or China and countries vital for Wal-Mart’s growth strategy. Protectionist actions by the new administration could spell very real trouble for Walmart in its ability to successfully buy and sell its cheaper and abundant goods in the same capacity.

Closer to home, it’s no secret that Walmart is still trying to grow and compete successfully in the online market dominated by Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN). The blue chip has been making progress, but it’s certainly not without cost — and a fact not lost on investors as evidenced by a still weak-looking WMT stock chart.

Reviewing WMT’s options market,  our sights are set on a lower, but probably slower-to-be realized, downside: The 24 Feb $65/$63/$61 long butterfly looks interesting. The strategically positioned spread is priced for 27 cents with WMT at $66.64 and results in a profit range from $61.27 to $64.73, with the sweet spot at $63. If shares found themselves down 5.5% from current levels at expiration, the max profit of $1.73 could be almost fully captured.

The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.

With an earnings catalyst for WMT stock on Feb. 21, and leading into the weeklys contract’s expiration, there’s more reason to like the looks of this cheaper spread which still casts a fairly wide and effective profit profile.

Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any of the securities or their derivatives mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional market insights and related musings, follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/02/4-blue-chip-dogs-of-the-dow-to-buy-and-sell/.

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