Sohu, Changyou — Value Plays on the Chinese Internet Market

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The U.S. might not be a fast-growing country, but China certainly is. And thanks to the wonders of the global stock listings, you can own shares in China’s even faster-growing Internet market. Candidate companies include Chinese Internet portal Sohu.com (NASDAQ:SOHU) and online game developer Changyou (NASDAQ:CYOU). But is either stock worth your money?

On Monday, Sohu reported briskly growing third-quarter numbers, although its EPS fell a bit short of expectations. Sohu enjoyed a 19% net income rise to $64.3 million thanks to strong online advertising of $76.7 million and online gaming — up 35% to $115.8 million.

Sohu’s total revenue of $233 million rose 42%, almost $5 million more than expected. But its earnings per share of $1.17 were a penny less than analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

And Sohu is not alone among Chinese Internet companies reporting Monday. For example, Changyou also reported rapid growth. Its revenue grew faster than Sohu’s, but its profits grew more slowly. Nevertheless, at least as far as beating expectations is concerned, CYOU outperformed SOHU.

Changyou reported a 39% increase in its revenue to $119 million and a 16.6% rise in net income, compared to the previous year, to about $53 million. CYOU’s adjusted EPS of $1.01 per share beat expectations by three cents, and its revenue was $1.5 million more than analysts had expected.

Behind Changyou’s revenue growth are new games. As Changyou CEO Tao Wang explained, these popular games include Tian Long Ba Bu, or TLBB, whose new version, introduced Oct. 20, added to “the number of users and the number of active paying accounts.” And its Duke of Mount Deer game appeals to “hard-core game players.”

So should you invest in Changyou stock and skip Sohu? If you’re willing to bet on these volatile stocks, I’d consider using the downdraft in their stocks today as an opportunity to buy both — with a slight edge to Changyou. Here’s why:

  • Sohu: Good growth, fat margins; cheap stock. Revenues for SOHU have increased 18.9% in the past 12 months to $710 million, while net income climbed 1% to $74 million — yielding a whopping 32.1% net profit margin. (These Chinese Internet companies are based in the Cayman Islands and therefore pay very low tax rates.) SOHU’s price/earnings-to-growth ratio of 0.61 (where a PEG of 1.0 is considered fairly priced) is cheap on a P/E of 14.53 and expected earnings growth of 23.6% to $5.74 in 2012.
  • Changyou: Healthy growth, strong margins; inexpensive stock. CYOU’s sales have climbed 22.3% in the past 12 months to $379 million, while net income jumped 20.9% to $200 million — yielding a huge 52.8% net profit margin. Changyou’s PEG of 0.35 is very inexpensive on a P/E of 7.5 and expected earnings growth of 21.4% to $4.98 in 2012.

With Monday’s earnings disappointment, Sohu stock has lost 11% of its value. This could be a good opportunity to buy the stock at a lower price. However, it also throws into question whether SOHU can meet its 2012 earnings growth target. But Changyou stock is even cheaper if it can meet its 2012 growth expectations.

SOHU and CYOU are volatile, making both stocks risky bets. But their high profit margins and exposure to the rapidly growing Chinese Internet market make each of them attractive bets for the edge of your risk/return investment frontier.

As of this writing, Peter Cohan did not own a position in any of the aforementioned stocks.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2011/10/sohu-changyou-cyou-chinese-internet-value-plays/.

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