The Best Strategy for Apple Stock Now? WAIT! (AAPL)

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AAPL - The Best Strategy for Apple Stock Now? WAIT! (AAPL)

Source: Yuanbin Du Via Flickr

It’s far too soon to know how the market will ultimately fare under a new administration. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is no exception.

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Perhaps Apple stock will continue to demonstrate resilience, as it did Wednesday morning. It held its own in premarket action even as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average struggled to recover from an overnight swoon.

An hour before the open, AAPL stock was down less than 1%. The Dow was off about 220 points, or 1.2%, after plunging more than 800 overnight. Meanwhile, the broader market was down about 1.3%.

That’s a reassuring start to what could be a very rocky period for equities, as uncertainty casts a pall over a host of domestic and foreign policy issues. But there are some reasons to see better times for Apple the company and Apple stock ahead.

The Bull Case for Apple Stock

One of the best things for U.S. multinationals is a weaker dollar. Indeed, a strong greenback has been a huge restraint on revenue growth for years. The dollar, like the Dow, tumbled in overnight action and then pared its losses at day break.

However, a downside bias likely remains, and that’s good for U.S. exporters and the trade deficit in general. Don’t forget that as the dollar weakens, iPhones, Macs, iPads and Apple Watches get cheaper for overseas consumers.

Militating against that, the incoming administration’s rhetoric on trade — and potentially even starting trade wars with China and others — could be disastrous for importers and exporters.

Apple, with its high dependence of China for iPhone growth now — and designs on India as the next big thing — could be victimized by a hostile posture on international trade.

As T. Rowe Price chief U.S. economist Alan Levenson said in a note:

“Trump’s trade threats — to Mexico and China — may be no more than opening ploys to secure concessions. But the risks of miscalculation would be high and could lead to very damaging trade wars — which could have a negative impact across the U.S. economy, not just limited to those areas directly linked to international trade. I am not aware of any country in history that ever isolated its way to prosperity.”

And let’s not forget that restrictions on immigration could hamper Apple’s ability to hire talent.

A Home for AAPL Cash?

On the plus side, it’s quite possible that a Trump presidency will make it possible for U.S. multinationals to repatriate cash held overseas.

Apple is the poster boy for the conundrum of foreign cash, though Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) and General Electric Company (NYSE:GE) are among other culprits. AAPL has more than a a quarter-trillion dollars in cash in its coffers but can’t bring it back home without taking a massive tax hit on the funds.

A little more than a decade ago, Congress approved a one-time tax break on repatriated earnings, knocking the rate down to 5.25% from the usual corporate rate of 35%.

If something like this really comes to pass, AAPL could bring tens or hundreds of billion of dollars home. It can then lavish the cash on shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. That could be a powerful tailwind for Apple stock.

Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, remember that AAPL stock can’t trade independently of the market. It is hardly a countercyclical name. With a beta of 1.5, shares tends to fall faster and farther than the benchmark index does when it’s selling off.

In other words, AAPL stock is nowhere near a safety trade, and that’s what is the most important takeaway here. We could be in for a period that’s very rough for equities in general. T. Rowe Price international bond manager Quentin Fitzsimmons had this to say in a note:

“The initial reaction to Brexit was extremely bumpy, but then things calmed down, at least for a while. Similarly, with a Trump presidency, it may be that investors are headed for a prolonged period of shock management. The institutional checks and balances on the U.S. president — the president is not all powerful—may mean that global investors ultimately decide to keep their heads down, not overreact, and try to ride out the next four years.”

The most important thing an investor can do is a time like this is not panic. It’s only natural to be anxious at times like this, but just remember that the long-term trend for stocks goes in only one direction: up and to the right.

As of this writing, Dan Burrows did not hold position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2016/11/best-apple-inc-aapl-stock-strategy-trump-iplace/.

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