The Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) Stock Rally Will Be Short-Lived

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Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (NYSE:ANF) used to be a household name — at least in households that had teenagers. ANF stock once commanded prices above $80, but it’s been stuck in a downtrend since 2011 and has lost more than 80% of its value.

The Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF) Stock Rally Will Be Short-Lived

Somewhat surprisingly, though, the retailer’s stock rallied double digits despite reporting disappointing earnings Wednesday afternoon. The company missed on both the top and bottom lines, with earnings of 71 cents per share coming in 4 centes short of estimates and revenue of $1.04 billion about $10 million shy of what Wall Street was looking for. Same-store sales fell 6%, which was more than the expected drop of 3.5%.

The results were worse than expected on almost all accounts.

Abercrombie also continues to close its stores, boarding up 54 shops last year and estimating that as many as 60 more will be closed in 2017. However, this could be viewed as positive as management shutters stores that are underperforming and focuses their attention on what is already working.

But what I think really sent the shares higher on Thursday was the fact that same-store sales within the Hollister chain gained 1%. To put that in perspective, sales at Abercrombie & Fitch declined 13%. Hollister is ANF’s largest chain, and considering most retailers reported negative numbers in the fourth quarter the increasing sales figures could be a sign of things to come.

ANF stock chart view 1

Bottom Line on ANF Stock

Looking ahead to the full year, there is an extremely wide range of earnings expectations between the 22 analysts currently covering Abercrombie stock. The lowest forecast is for a loss of 28 cents per share, while the highest estimate has earnings pegged at 62 cents. The median expectation is for a gain of 15 cents per share.

Essentially, nobody knows what to expect from Abercrombie in 2017.

If the company is able to come in somewhere near the upper end of the range, it would go in the books as a great turnaround story. But on the other hand, earnings at the lower end could mean the end for this once-popular teen retailer.

There’s no question that Thursday’s move in ANF stock suggests a bit of optimism among investors, but at the same time the bounce could simply have been the result of all the bad news already being baked into the shares. Or the fact that the Hollister number was a very pleasant surprise.

Regardless, I wouldn’t recommend chasing Abercrombie here as I suspect the rally will fade in the coming weeks.

Matthew McCall is founder and president of Penn Financial Group, an investment advisory firm. Matt also is Editor of FUTR Stocks and the ETF Bulletin. Earlier this year, Matt and Hilary Kramer teamed up on Breakout Stocks where Matt serves as the Co-Editor. Most recently, Matt and Hilary joined forces again. This time, they are helping individual investors make money trading ETFs. For more on their latest project, visit www.etfedgesummit.com.


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