Why United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL) Stock Isn’t Better Than Copa

United Continental Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL), like most airlines in recent years, has delivered handsome returns for shareholders. Up 26.9% on an annualized basis over the last five years through Mar. 23, the bull market for UAL stock and other airline stocks is beginning to look a little tired.

Why United Continental Holdings Inc (UAL) Stock Isn't Better Than Copa

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InvestorPlace contributor Dana Blankenhorn recently called United Airlines stock the worst airline stock you can buy, pointing readers to better-operated airlines like Alaska Air Group, Inc. (NYSE:ALK) or Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV).

He has a point.

The Downside to United Airlines

Why buy UAL stock when you can own an airline like Southwest that has less debt and better margins? Conservative investors are wise to take up his recommendation. However, those who like a little spice with their airline investing might want to consider United Airlines’ Latin American partner — Copa Holdings, S.A. (NYSE:CPA).

Copa is based in Panama City, Panama, perfectly situated between North and South America. Efficiently run, the currency/economic issues facing Latin America over the last couple of years really took the steam out of its stock, a fact I’m painfully aware of.

In December 2013, I wrote an article entitled, The 5 Best Stocks to Buy for the Next 20 Years. Unfortunately, I recommended CPA stock near its all-time high of $162.83, whereupon it proceeded to spiral downward to as low as $41 in September 2015. It has since recovered a chunk of those losses, but still has a negative annual total return of 10.2%. I expect those returns to turn positive on annual basis by 2018.

The 5 Best Stocks to Buy for the Next 20 Years – Dec. 12/2013 to Mar. 23/2017

Company   Annualized Total Return
Echo Global Logistics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ECHO) 0.80%
Universal Display Corporation (NASDAQ:OLED) 34.9%
Copa Holdings -10.2%

SVB Financial Group 

(NASDAQ:SIVB)

19.5%

Amazon.com, Inc. 

(NASDAQ:AMZN)

27.9%
Overall 17.3%
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY)  8.8%


Why Do I Like Copa and Not UAL Stock?

There’s not one thing I can put my finger on that screams buy one over the other. However, Latin America is expected to see GDP growth in 2017 of 1.5%, its best showing since 2013. Panama is the fastest-growing economy in Latin America; projected GDP growth in 2017 is 6.4%, a continuation of a multi-year economic boom in its home country.

It has 71 737-Max’s on order with the first to arrive in 2018. Its fleet is already young with an average age of seven years and heading lower on the delivery of the new planes.

That will help lower fuel costs and increase margins. Copa management estimate cost reduction initiatives like this will add 100 basis points to its EBIT margin in 2017; other strategies including the recovery of the Latin American economies should add another 10 percentage points to its EBIT margins by 2019.

Earnings drive share prices higher.

In the first two months of the year, Copa has seen traffic improve with a 3.5% increase in available seat miles (ASM), an 8.9% increase in revenue seat miles (RSM) and load factor is up on a year-to-date basis by 410 basis points to 82.4%. If Copa were a hotel (load factor is basically the same thing as occupancy) the owners would be very happy.

Copa expects its 2017 ASM to grow by 6%, 450 basis points higher than its growth this past year. Equally important it expects to improve operating margins by as much as 460 basis points to 17%. Load factor is projected to be 80%; its adjusted breakeven load factor in 2016 was 70.7%.

“Copa Holdings fourth quarter results reflect the continuous improvement in the demand environment,” Copa management commented in its Q3 2016 earnings release. “Additionally, good commercial execution and capacity discipline have allowed the company to make the most of improving traffic trends and to deliver historically high load factors.”

Bottom Line on UAL Stock

While airlines like UAL stock in the U.S. are experiencing slower traffic so far in 2017, Copa is full speed ahead and it’s only going to get better in Q2 2018 when the south terminal expansion in Panama City opens for business.

The biggest risk with owning Copa stock is the fact it operates in a politically unstable region of the world bringing an element of the unknown to your investment.

However, its management team would not be out of place in Chicago where United Airlines is based or Atlanta or any of the other cities where U.S. airlines are headquartered. Its CEO, Pedro Heilbron, has been in the top job since 1988; he understands the issues that Latin American businesses face every day. Several of its senior people have worked with U.S. airlines including United Airlines.

For me, it’s not so much I feel UAL stock is a bad stock, but rather that Copa is a better one.

That said, the risk might be too much for the average retail investor; I get that. But if you’re at all familiar with Latin America, I think you ought to at least consider it.

As of this writing, Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/04/united-continental-holdings-inc-ual-stock-isnt-better-copa/.

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