Fed Rate Hike Could Be an Anchor Around the S&P 500’s Neck

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U.S. stocks were batted around the unchanged line on Wednesday before finishing mixed as Wall Street delivered all the drama and excitement one comes to expect from Federal Reserve policy announcement days.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%, the S&P 500 lost 0.1%, the Nasdaq Composite gave back 0.1% and the Russell 2000 ended 0.6% lower.

Further, Treasury bonds were stronger, the dollar was mixed, gold reversed early strength to get smashed into the close, down 0.5% and crude oil was body slammed 3.7% as the United States Oil Fund lP (ETF) (NYSEARCA:USO) fell below its August low — returning to depths not seen since early 2016.

Fed Rate Hike Could Be an Anchor Around the S&P 500's Neck

Breadth was negative, with 1.1 decliners for every advancing issue on in-line volume. Consumer staples led the way with a 0.6% gain while energy was the laggard, down 1.8% as a group.

The Fed hiked its short-term policy rate another quarter point, as expected, but also penciled in another rate hike before the end of the year as well as discussed plans for tapering its bloated $4 trillion balance sheet, which it also expects to start before the end of the year. The roadmap going forward looks like this: the start of the balance sheet taper in September and another rate hike in December.

This is far from the “dovish hike” the market was expecting: futures had only priced in two further rate hikes through the end of 2019. It all came in the wake of a weak retail sales and consumer price inflation report this morning.

And with the Fed’s balance sheet tapering eventually, ramping up to $50 billion a month, the bulls suddenly realize their monetary morphine drip is getting cut off.

As a result, an initial post-Fed bounce turned into an ugly intraday selloff with the Big Tech “FAAMG” stocks taking it on the chin. The Nasdaq lurched into the red. And the bears looked like they might win one on a Fed day for once.

The bulls piled into bank stocks to try to counter, managing a 50% retracement in the Nasdaq. But it was enough to push the Dow to a new record high. The S&P 500 stayed in the red, however.

Conclusion

If it seems odd that the Dow would hit a new record on a day when the Fed raised interest rates and is committed to even more policy tightening — which has been historically the cause of every single economic recession in the post-Fed era — well, that’s because it is.

Especially when combined with the breakdown in crude oil; overextended valuations and investor sentiment; negative seasonality (“Sell in May” and the fact June normally sucks); crappy economic data; no major legislative push from the Trump White House; and the fact that Q2 corporate earnings are going to stink because of lower long-term interest rates and commodity prices.

The fact of the matter is this: The chart above of central bank purchases has been the only thing that’s mattered for years. Sure, there’s been other catalysts: The recent end of the 2014-2016 energy-driven corporate earnings recession and “Trump-flation” hopes. But mainly, it’s been about cheap money stimulus.

The party is ending on what is the biggest financial market bubble in human history, inflating the value of everything from profitless battery buggy makers — yes, Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) — to crappy art, old Porsches, Greek bonds and Seattle real estate.

How do we know it’s ending? Well, as the old adage the bulls love to use says: “Don’t fight the Fed.”

I believe the Fed when they say they are going to clamp down on credit at a time when commercial loan activity is rolling over in a very recessionary way and the yield curve is poised to go negative sometime next year according to Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg, which is the mother of all recession indicators. (As an aside, China’s money market is showing a yield curve inversion right now too.)

Don’t you?

Outside of the Fed, both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are running out of long-term government bonds to buy, jeopardizing their ability to ram money into the financial system.

At this point, the most bullish thesis is probably this: stocks drop enough that the Fed backs away from its tightening pace.

Check out Serge Berger’s Trade of the Day for June 15.

Today’s Trading Landscape

To see a list of the companies reporting earnings today, click here.

For a list of this week’s economic reports due out, click here.

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Anthony Mirhaydari is founder of the Edge (ETFs) and Edge Pro (Options) investment advisory newsletters. Free two- and four-week trial offers have been extended to InvestorPlace readers.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/06/fed-rattles-stocks-with-hawkish-rate-hike/.

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