DA Davidson has launched coverage on eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) and they slapped a “Buy” rating and $45 price target on the stock. That implies a whopping 17%-plus upside. Consequently, EBAY stock is trading marginally higher despite struggles elsewhere in tech names.

But DA Davidson is an outlier on the sell-side of things. Most sell-side firms have a “Hold” rating on the stock. Actually, more than half of the Wall Street analysts that cover EBAY stock have a “Hold” rating on the name. Meanwhile, the average analyst price target is actually below the current stock price.

Who’s right? Does EBAY stock actually have another 20% run in it? Or is this stock, which has already risen 30% year-to-date, maxed out?

I’m going with the latter.

Here’s why.

eBay Inc Is Not A Turnaround Story

eBay Inc is being pumped by bulls as a turnaround story. After all, it was once the ugly duckling of Internet commerce. Not so much anymore. The site looks a lot cleaner than it did a few years ago. It feels more like a modern Internet commerce platform than an online garage sale.

The result it that revenues are finally growing again.

But not by much.

Gross merchandise value growth has flatlined around 2% to 4%. A low single-digit GMV growth rate is healthy, but it’s not exciting by any stretch. And it’s not really getting any better or worse. It’s just staying consistent in that 2% to 4% range every quarter.

Revenue growth has also flatlined. The net revenue growth rate has trended around a pedestrian 3% to 6% rate for the past several quarters. Same with buyer growth, which has flatlined around a rather mundane 3% to 4% rate.

Even high-flying StubHub is slowing down. GMV growth on StubHub early last year was above 30%. Now, GMV growth is down 5%. Granted, seasonality plays a role in this, but StubHub’s GMV growth has been flattish for some time now. This platform is getting maxed out.

Classifieds growth is also slowing. Mid teens revenue growth in the first half of last year has turned into mid single-digit revenue growth in the first half of this year.

Meanwhile, gross margins are falling. They’ve been falling for some time. In 2014, gross margins were 81%. Last year, they were under 78%. So far this year? They are trending just above 76%.

That’s not good.

It’s also not good that operating expenses are rising faster than revenues.

While the topline growth story may appear to be in a very modest rebound, that rebound is the result of increased investment. EBAY will have to continue investing in its platform to sustain modest topline growth in the hyper-competitive Internet commerce market. It’s also worth noting that as the number of financially disruptive cyber attacks grows, EBAY will have to continue its heavy investments into security.

Overall, it doesn’t look like EBAY will be able to leverage operating expenses at all over the next several years.

So lets recap. EBAY’s topline growth is slow. Gross margins are falling. Operating expenses are rising.

How exactly is this a turnaround story?

Bottom Line on EBAY Stock

EBAY isn’t a turnaround story.

Overall, revenues will grow around 5% per year over the next several years. Gross margins will be flat at best. Same with the opex rate. Share buybacks will help, but earnings growth over the next several years will almost certainly be below 10%. A better guess is that earnings growth will be capped out around 7.5%.

But EBAY stock trades at 19.3-times this year’s earnings estimate. That is a gross multiple for just 7.5% earnings growth potential.

It’s also worth noting that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple (18.9-times FY17 earnings) for bigger growth (~10.5% over next several years).

So why buy EBAY stock after it has already rallied 30% this year?

Don’t.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.