Alphabet Inc Looks Wimpish Heading Into 2018

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While the going hasn’t been smooth by any means, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) is still on track for a solid performance in 2017. GOOGL stock has gained more than 32% this year, and the shares are primed to extend those gains heading into 2018.

But whether Alphabet can start the new year off on the right foot remains to be seen.

For starters, Alphabet has put up respectable earnings numbers, but many analysts are worried that ad revenue and the company’s diversified spending habits could impact the bottom line going forward.

That said, Alphabet is moving forward in several key areas, including artificial intelligence (AI). On that front, Alphabet just announced plans to open an AI research center in Beijing, China, despite the Google website being blocked in the country.

GOOGL Stock
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Technically, the GOOGL stock price has given investors very little to cheer about in recent weeks. The shares have remained largely range bound between support at $1,030 and resistance near $1,060.

One encouraging development was GOOGL’s rebound from support near $1,000 and it’s 50-day moving average following the early December correction in FANG stocks. That rebound has stalled, however, with the $1,060 region once again the culprit.

On the sentiment side, GOOGL stock remains a heavy bullish favorite. According to data from Thomson/First Call, 38 of the 43 analysts following GOOGL rate the shares a “buy” or better.

Furthermore, the 12-month price target rests at $1,078.57. While this bullish backdrop has its merits, it does leave room for downgrades on any signs of weakness.

Meanwhile, short interest rests at a negligible 0.5% of the stock’s total float, but it is worth noting that shorts jumped by 8% during the most recent reporting period. This development probably won’t have much impact on Alphabet stock directly, but it does indicate a rise in pessimism toward the shares.

Turning to the options pits, speculators appear rather indifferent to the shares. Specifically, the January 2018 put/call open interest ratio rests at a null reading of 1.0. In other words, puts and calls are in parity for the first month of the year as options traders are divided on GOOGL stock’s direction in January.

Overall, January 2018 implieds are pricing in a potential move of about 4.2% heading into next month’s expiration. This places the upper bound at $1,095 and the lower bound at $1,005.

2 Trades for GOOGL Stock

Put Sell: With the shares range bound — and both sentiment and technicals providing no real clear direction for Google stock — a put sell may be the best way for options traders to bank a profit. At last check, the January 2018 $1,000 put was bid at $7.52, or $752 per contract.

The upside to this put sell strategy is that you keep the premium as long as Alphabet stock closes above $1,000 when these options expire. The downside is that should GOOGL trade below $1,000 ahead of expiration, you could be assigned 100 shares for each sold put at a cost of $1,000 per share.

Put Spread: With GOOGL stock trading near the upper end of its recent trading range, a pullback to support heading into next year could be likely. Traders looking to take advantage of short-term weakness might want to consider a January 2018 $1,040/$1,045 bear put spread.

At last check, this spread was offered at $1.34, or $134 per pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $1,043.66, while a maximum profit of $3.66, or $366 per pair of contracts — a possible return of about 170% — is possible if Google shares close at or below $1,040 when January 2018 options expire.

Such a pullback could be met with buying support, so be sure to set your stops on the trade accordingly.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2017/12/alphabet-looks-wimpish-in-2018/.

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