The Bitcoin Boom Isn’t Busted Yet

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bitcoin - The Bitcoin Boom Isn’t Busted Yet

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One of the important points to understand about the bitcoin and cryptocurrency phenomena is that it’s primarily an Asian thing.

The money going into bitcoin, Ethereum, LiteCoin and other coins is mostly measured in yuan, won and yen, not dollars and euros.

So, when regulators in China, or elsewhere in Asia, speak ill of the cryptocurrency market, it’s going to have an impact, which is what’s been happening this week. If talk is followed by action, the boom could soon bust.

Don’t take my word for it. Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff says cryptocurrency’s attraction is its anonymity, which governments will wipe away for tax purposes. Jeffrey Miron, another Crimson who calls himself a “libertarian” economist, also thinks governments can regulate bitcoin away.

The China Syndrome

If China drives out its bitcoin miners, as a recent government memo says it will, one of the market’s props would be wiped away. Chinese rigs produce three-fourths of the world’s supply of new bitcoin.

Be aware, of course, that this is the same government that supposedly made bitcoin illegal in the fall. Chinese talk and Chinese action can be two different things.

But China is not alone. India is blocking withdrawals from cryptocurrency exchanges like Koinex. South Korea is investigating banks that trade cryptocurrency for signs of money laundering. Proposals for bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have been shelved after the government raised concerns. Even British police have learned how to seize it.

Criminals who first drove the bitcoin boom are finding it is no safe haven. The government is auctioning bitcoin from convicted criminals just as it sells off their boats and other assets.

Bitfury, which supports the law’s enforcement on cryptocurrency, says governments can now track bitcoin moves within multiple accountsMicrosoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) has dropped bitcoin payments like a hot potato.

This Is Not the End for Bitcoin

Despite all this, bitcoin has held up. On Jan. 9, the bitcoin price was near $15,000, close to the levels of a month ago, and that’s just one-third of the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum is rising again, becoming the second-leading coin by market cap, and the value of Monero, which claims anonymity as its chief virtue, has doubled in the last month.

Even Dogecoin, created out of an internet meme in 2013 with the picture of a Japanese Shiba Inu dog as its symbol, is having its day, doubling within a week.

It’s clear that there remains enormous investor interest, driven by global distrust of governments, both in their ability to manipulate what bitcoin advocates call “fiat currency,” and in their role of controlling markets with cops and regulators.

I should add that distrust of the media is also playing into the fantasies of bitcoin bulls. The sudden rush of outlets to launch “cryptocurrency” desks, and to claim authority for reporters brand-new to the beat, act as both a spur and a dampener on coin mania.

It’s a spur because it makes the trade seem legitimate. It’s a dampener in that the views of the new reporters are uniformly negative, even from outlets that were formerly fans.

Watch Overstock

One way to measure the temperature is to follow the stock of Overstock.com Inc (NASDAQ:OSTK), the one-time Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) rival that staked its future to blockchain last year and has since skyrocketed in value.

Before CEO Patrick Byrne got bitcoin mania last summer, OSTK stock was trading in the teens. Based on its track record and scant growth and profits, that seemed about right. Today, the stock trades in the mid-80s, as Byrne utters the magic word “blockchain” to anyone who will listen.

No, this boom hasn’t busted yet.

Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the historical mystery romance, The Reluctant Detective Travels in Time, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at danablankenhorn@gmail.com or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing, he owned shares in MSFT and AMZN.

Dana Blankenhorn has been a financial and technology journalist since 1978. He is the author of Technology’s Big Bang: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow with Moore’s Law, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Tweet him at @danablankenhorn, connect with him on Mastodon or subscribe to his Substack.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/01/bitcoin-boom-isnt-busted-yet/.

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