Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB) is a hot mess right now. The social media giant has a massive public relations problem centered on user data security — or lack thereof. Every talking head on Wall Street has emerged to proclaim that government regulation is inevitable. Earnings are sure to take a hit. But is it and will they?

Facebook stock has certainly taken a hit on the backlash surrounding user privacy. But the company is not new to this game. Facebook has dealt with increasing privacy regulations overseas for years. Privacy concerns ramped up in the E.U. last year when several nations sued for improper use of users’ personal data.

Stateside, Facebook users have been largely dismissive of the potential risks to their personal data. In fact, the Cambridge Analytica debacle was the first time many U.S. users even questioned how their data was being used. What’s more, aside from a few high profile users, like Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) co-founder Steve Wozniak, Facebook users in the U.S. have barely blinked an eye.

The problem for Facebook stock investors right now is a lack of data on how this situation will affect the company’s bottom line. But, we may get an early look later this month when Facebook reports first-quarter earnings.

For the quarter, analysts are looking for year-over-year earnings growth of 30% to $1.36-per-share. Revenue is expected to rise 42% on the same basis to $11.41 billion.

But these baseline numbers may be all but meaningless when it comes to reactions from Facebook stock. The real driver following the April 25 earnings report will be user growth (or lack there of), daily active users and revenue guidance.

User growth was already slowing at the end of last year. During the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report, CEO Mark Zuckerberg said: “Already last quarter, we made changes to show fewer viral videos to make sure people’s time is well spent. In total, we made changes that reduced time spent on Facebook by roughly 50 million hours every day.”

You can see why analysts are hedging their bets on Facebook’s revenue. That’s a lot of lost ad impressions. Despite this news, Thomson/First Call reports that only two analysts have lowered their earnings targets in the past 30 days.

In fact, the brokerage bunch doesn’t appear to have budged much at all in the midst of Facebook’s current troubles. Overall, 41 of the 44 analysts covering the stock still rate FB a “buy” or better. The 12-month price target rests at a lofty $218.22 — a 38% premium to Friday’s close.

The problem here is that Facebook stock is at a much greater risk of downgrades or price-target decreases than usual. Before Cambridge Analytica, an earnings miss or light revenue would be a minor impact for the shares — especially after the recent market retreat. This time, however, any blip in guidance could be seen as a warning sign, thus eliciting target cuts or downgrades. On the flip side, there is little room for more bulls on the bandwagon, so don’t expect upgrades on a better-than-expected report.

Facebook stock options traders are also not as bearish as you would expect given the recent flood of negativity in the financial media. Currently, the May put/call open interest ratio comes in at a 0.67, with calls on the verge of doubling FB puts for the series.

Click to EnlargeAs for expectations, Facebook stock’s May implied volatility is pricing in a potential post-earnings move of about 9%. This places the upper bound at about $171.50, while the lower bound lies at $143.40.

Technically, the expected move falls well short of overhead resistance at FB’s 200-day moving average.

Meanwhile, short-term support should hold at $150, as it has throughout the market selloff. Solid guidance and more of the same with daily active users should see FB stock trend toward $170 following earnings. Poor guidance or a bigger loss of users than expected could put long-term support at $140 in danger.

Two Trades for Facebook Stock

Call Spread: I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the situation for Facebook right now isn’t as bad as many in the financial media are making it out to be. While overseas growth may slow a bit, U.S. growth and ad revenue shouldn’t be affected. It will take forever for this Congress to do anything about Facebook and privacy issues, if, in fact, it decides to do anything.

As such, first-quarter earnings should come in at or above expectations and guidance will be restrained, but nothing not already priced into the shares.

Traders looking to bet on a post-earnings rally for Facebook stock might want to consider a May $160/$165 bull call spread. At last check, this spread was offered at $2.00, or $200-per-pair-of-contracts. Breakeven lies at $162, while a maximum profit of $3.00, or $300-per-pair-of-contracts, is possible if Facebook stock closes at or above $165 when May options expire.

Put Spread: On the other hand, if Facebook shows any signs of weakness at all related to U.S. regulation or Cambridge Analytica, it could spark a sentiment shift in the brokerage community.

Traders we believe that Facebook stock isn’t out of the woods just yet might want to consider a May $145/$150 put spread. At last check, this spread was offered at $1.33, or $133-per-pair of contracts. Breakeven lies at $148.67, while a maximum profit of $3.67, or $367-per-pair of contracts, is possible if Facebook stock closes at or below $145 when May options expire.

As of this writing, Joseph Hargett did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.