A Target, Kroger Merger Wouldn’t Be the Game-Changer It Needs to Be

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Target stock - A Target, Kroger Merger Wouldn’t Be the Game-Changer It Needs to Be

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Neither Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) nor Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) have confirmed it. But, neither has outright denied it either. That is, the rumor that the two organizations have been talking about merging. It’s an idea most owners of Target stock like, even as it raises concerns and prompts questions. After all, anything that helps the struggling retailer pushback against Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) as well as Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is a good thing. Every other competitor in each of its respective arenas appears to be partnering up.

But is it really as simple as all that? Is a Kroger/Target tie-up the simple no-brainer solution that gives the two outfits a fighting chance against bigger and better-funded rivals?

Makes Some Sense

For the record, the idea first surfaced a week and a half ago, not by comments or actions by either company, but from a suggestion made by business magazine and website Fast Company, citing “unnamed sources” for the possibility.

Oppenheimer analyst Rupesh Parikh pushed back quickly enough, explaining that any talks between the two companies was likely more about the shared usage of Shipt… the same-day delivery service Target said it would acquire in December. In so doing, the two retailers would be better equipped to compete with the likes of Walmart and Amazon, both of which have made speedy deliveries part of their value-add efforts.

It’s a possibility Target and Kroger haven’t said a word about it either way; for the record, though, it’s not so far-fetched. Both Target and Kroger lack the sheer scale they need to compete with Amazon (which now owns Whole Foods Market) and Walmart, which is the nation’s biggest grocer, even though groceries aren’t its core business.

Together, though, they just might be big enough to stave off the two players that have generally overwhelmed competitors. As Wolfe Research analyst Scott Mushkin noted after the recent rumor began to circulate, “Target needs a credible food offering to drive more frequent visits to the stores and distribution expertise in consumables, where our research shows more notable out-of-stocks.”

Kroger, which has also waded into the so-called “superstore” industry with stores that offer things like clothing, furniture and home goods could also benefit from access to Target’s inventory, Mushkin added. Plus, if nothing else, the incredible geographic overlap of Target’s stores and Kroger’s stores could lead to shipping and distribution synergies.

Even so, a melding of the two companies wouldn’t likely be nearly as easy as owners of Target stock are hoping… if a merger is in the cards.

And the Point Is?

On paper, pairing two different companies up seems relatively easy. In reality, it can be downright hard, sometimes doing more harm than good. One can’t help but wonder if a meaningful pairing of the two organizations in question would do more harm than good.

The heart of idea, it seems, is scale, and there’s no denying that bigger is better provided it’s managed properly. There’s no assurance that a larger scale through a combination would bear fruit though.

For starters, while Target has waded deeper into grocery waters, it’s still no Kroger in that regard. While Target would presumably gain access to Kroger’s distributors and suppliers, sourcing groceries is complicated. Some must remain cold, if not frozen, and much of it — like produce — has to be shipped quickly, sometimes from afar. Meanwhile, even if Kroger were willing to put more Target-like merchandise in its superstores, it remains to be seen how and where that could effectively happen.

There’s also the not-so-small matter that compared to Walmart’s and Amazon.com’s, Target’s e-commerce machine pales in comparison. Kroger doesn’t have one at all (not that it needs one). Cross-selling each other’s goods doesn’t address the bigger issue.

But rivals have made similar moves? Not quite.

Yes, Amazon acquired its way into the grocery business with Whole Foods, and quickly leveraged the deal. Among other things, it’s now offering meal kits. It’s also selling non-grocery goods at those stores. Meanwhile, Walmart has bought several dot-coms that aim at the higher-end of the consumer-spending scale. Among them are brands/venues like Bonobos, Moosejaw, and ModCloth.

There’s a method to the madness, though. Amazon wanted Whole Foods not because it thinks groceries are a great business to be in, but because there’s a treasure trove of customer data in being in the business. Walmart, meanwhile, is looking to build a collection of higher-end e-commerce platforms that not only allow for effective cross-selling, but also generate information that can funnel more people to its stores and to its less-uppity e-commerce platforms.

The only thing Target stock holders would see with a Kroger/Target pairing is greater size. The strategic benefit has yet to be clarified.

Bottom Line for Target Stock

Maybe there is more to the matter than just greater scale… maybe. But, Target hasn’t exactly proven it’s been a great innovator. Neither has Kroger. The two could unite, but to what end? The same people who are in charge now would still be in charge, perhaps missing opportunities to differentiate themselves as they are now.

That may well be why it hasn’t happened yet. Both organizations may be thinking they’d each be better off finding a more fruitful partner. For Target, it’s been rumored that could be Amazon. For Kroger, that could be — well, it remains to be seen.

Whatever the future holds though, a Kroger/Traget team-up isn’t the one that would do the most good for Target stock.

As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/04/target-kroger-merger-game-changer/.

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