Streaming Will Set up the Next Really Big Rally In Walt Disney Stock

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Disney stock - Streaming Will Set up the Next Really Big Rally In Walt Disney Stock

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The magical kingdom that is Walt Disney Co (NYSE:DIS) hasn’t been so magical as of late. Disney stock has seen better days.

Cord-cutting headwinds have killed the company’s traditional media business, and the slaughtering of Disney’s cash cow has largely overshadowed strength elsewhere at Disney, including big growth in the Studio and Parks businesses.

That is why, over the past three years, Disney stock is down about 10%, versus 30%-plus gains across all major indices.

But that is all about to change.

Forget the pessimistic cord-cutting narrative which has plagued Disney for several years now.

Instead, get ready to adopt a robust subscriber growth narrative through Disney’s 2019 streaming service that will ultimately power Disney stock to new highs.

Here’s a deeper look.

Disney’s Streaming Service Will Be Huge

Disney is set to launch its highly anticipated streaming platform 2019, and it will be huge.

Anyone who doesn’t think Disney’s streaming service will be huge either has their blinders on, doesn’t fully grasp all of the content that Disney owns, or fails to understand that multiple streaming platforms can co-exist side-by-side.

Disney is the company behind Disney, Pixar, LucasArts, and Marvel content. Between those four, you are basically accounting for more than half of every major blockbuster in recent memory.

Overall, over the past five years, if you take the top five movies of each year, Disney is behind 13 of them, so more than half.

More than that, on average, Disney movies carry the load at the box office. Over the past five years, Disney movies have accounted for roughly 65% of the top five gross total.

That is domination. Thus, while Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is dominating streaming, Disney is dominating the big screen.

That big screen domination will eventually flow into streaming domination. Big screen domination means that consumers are paying upwards of $10 per movie ticket to see a single Disney movie.

Do you really think that most of those people won’t pay $10 per month to see every Disney movie, whenever they want to, and from the convenience of their own home?

Moreover, if you go to your Netflix account and browse the “Popular on Netflix” movies category, you will see a whole bunch of Disney content.

I just checked over there, and Disney franchises like ThorCarsBeauty & The BeastGuardians of the Galaxy, and Pirates of the Caribbean were among some of the top hits.

All that content will be pulled from Netflix in 2019. Where will it go? Disney’s streaming platform.

That means a bunch of the most-watched content on the top streaming service in the world will migrate to Disney’s streaming service in 2019.

Disney Stock Could Roar Higher

The only argument left for why Disney streaming won’t be huge is that people already have Netflix, and they don’t need another streaming service.

But that argument also makes no sense.

Firstly, there is a lot of overlap presently between Netflix, Amazon Video, and Hulu because no single streaming platform offers everything a consumer wants to watch.

Secondly, these platforms are cheap. Netflix is around $11 per month. Disney will be substantially cheaper than that.

Thus, consumers could easily subscribe to both, and the cost would still be way less than cable, which runs around $100 per month.

Overall, then, while there is no such thing as a sure thing in the stock market, Disney streaming is about as close as it gets. Disney has all the content firepower to make Disney streaming a huge hit.

If that happens, Disney stock could soar. Disney has gone nowhere for three years, and presently trades at 13-times forward earnings, versus a 5-year average multiple of 17.

The reason for the current weakness is cord-cutting headwinds. But those headwinds will phase out over the next several years, and streaming growth tailwinds will phase in.

Disney will stop looking like an old media company, and more like a streaming tech company.

That will warrant a huge turnaround in Disney stock.

Bottom Line on Disney Stock

DIS stock lost its magic over the past 3 years. But it is about to get that magic back in a big way soon. As such, buying Disney now before what will likely be a huge rally in 2019 seems like the smart move.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long DIS.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/06/disney-stock-streaming-rally/.

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