In a blog post on Aug. 13, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk added much-needed clarity surrounding his “taking Tesla private, funding secured” tweet on Aug. 7, which sent TSLA stock skyrocketing to $380.

In that blog post, Musk clarified that discussions are happening at Tesla regarding taking the company private, and that the Saudi Arabia wealth fund, which recently took a 5% stake in Tesla, has expressed support for funding a go-private transaction at this time.

Essentially, it looks like Tesla might actually go private, and that funding is actually (or at least somewhat) secured.

Yet, TSLA stock is failing to rally on this news. As of this writing, TSLA stock is actually down more than a percent on the day.

Why the drop in Tesla stock despite the positive update from Musk? There is a lot skepticism on the Street regarding whether a go-private deal will actually go through, and rightly so. This is a management team (and a man) who have developed a reputation for over-promising and under-delivering. The funding isn’t fully committed through contract. And, there are regulation hurdles here, too.

In other words, the market is taking what Musk is saying with a grain of salt. That’s why TSLA stock is failing to rally after Musk’s most recent blog post.

What’s next for Tesla stock in this wild go-private saga? The short answer: Who really knows? This is an unprecedented situation with unpredictable outcomes. But, the financial support of the Saudi Arabia fund is a big win for bulls. And, Tesla stock is already at pre-tweet levels, so further downside seems limited. Meanwhile, if go-private discussions progress healthily, upside toward $420 or higher looks promising.

Thus, I don’t really know where TSLA stock goes in the near-term. No one does. But over the next three to four months, this stock should hit $400 regardless. We will either get there this month thanks to a go-private deal, or we will get there by the end of the year, thanks to back-half Model 3 ramp.

The Update on the Tesla Situation

In his most recent blog post, Musk tried to do some damage control. He explained why he sent the tweet: “it wouldn’t be right to share information about going private with just our largest investors without sharing the same information with all investors at the same time.” He also explained why he said funding was secured: “I left the July 31st meeting with no question that a deal with the Saudi sovereign fund could be closed, and that it was just a matter of getting the process moving.”

But, the big takeaway from Musk’s recent blog post is that it looks like funding is indeed mostly secured.

Musk clarified that the Saudi Arabia sovereign wealth fund has approached him multiple times over the past two years about taking Tesla private. That same fund recently acquired a 5% stake in Tesla, and subsequently asked to meet with Musk. In that meeting, the fund “strongly expressed … support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla”, and since Musk’s tweet, the fund has continued to express support for a go-private transaction.

In other words, it looks like a go-private TSLA transaction will be bankrolled largely by the Saudi Arabia wealth fund, which is desperately looking to diversify outside of oil. That fund has a ton of money, and they apparently really like Tesla. So, while funding isn’t secured through contract, it does appear secured by logic and word.

That is a big win for bulls here. But, it doesn’t mean a go-private deal is happening any time soon. There remains a ton of due diligence to be done before anything really gets rolling. Thus, TSLA stock could be stuck in neutral for a while.

Tesla Stock Will Hit $400 Regardless

Amid all this go-private noise, Tesla has accelerated Model 3 production to nearly 6,000-vehicles-per-week, an all-time high and up from under 4,000-vehicles-per-week in early July and 1,500-vehicles-per-week in early June. At this rate of production ramp, the company’s long-term dream of 10,000 Model 3 vehicles produced per week could become a reality quite soon.

Importantly, this sustained production ramp in August makes management’s promises for profitability in the back-half of 2018 look increasingly likely. If the Model 3 production ramp sustains in the back-half of 2018 and drives profitability, then TSLA stock could soar. Prior production ramps have caused big rallies in TSLA stock. This is arguably the company’s most important production ramp yet, so a successful ramp toward the end of 2018 could reasonably cause the biggest production-based jump yet in TSLA stock.

In other words, regardless of whether a go-private deal goes through, I think Tesla stock will see $400-plus prices by the end of the year.

Bottom Line on TSLA Stock

Realistically, I think there is somewhere between a 20% and 30% chance that Saudi Arabia bankrolls a go-private transaction for Tesla at prices north of $420-per-share.

Meanwhile, if that deal doesn’t go through, I think there is a very high likelihood that TSLA stock gets above $400 in 2018 regardless thanks to a sustained strong ramp in Model 3 production.

No matter which way you look at it, then, I think TSLA stock hits $400 before the year is over.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long TSLA.