Nvidia Has an Ambitious But Beatable Q2 Target

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NVDA stock - Nvidia Has an Ambitious But Beatable Q2 Target

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Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has always been a solid tech investment, but it has truly come to life over the past two-and-a-half years. In 2016, NVDA stock gained nearly 234%. Although the following year dipped in magnitude, the 86% boost was still very impressive.

Even now, with NVDA stock currently up nearly 31%, shares still resonate with investors. However, critics have come out of the woodwork, and it’s difficult to ignore their perspective. On a technical level, shares have moved substantially over the past few years. At a certain point, investors should expect a correction.

Fundamentally, the valuation for NVDA stock has become very rich. Shares trade at 43-times trailing earnings and 32.5-times forward earnings. That hasn’t been a problem during its multi-year run up. Nvidia levers impressive strengths in its financials, including a strong balance sheet and class-leading profitability margins. Additionally, its three-year revenue growth significantly exceeds the competition.

That said, questions hang over Nvidia’s upside potential. Geopolitically, the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China weighs particularly heavily on the tech sector. If the situation spirals completely out of control, all semiconductor firms would face severe challenges.

Another hangover is the cryptocurrency market. Although Nvidia has multiple, robust business divisions, the cryptocurrencies have captured most investors’ attention. Given that Nvidia is a prime manufacturer of crypto-mining specific GPUs, the company has enjoyed a revenue burst whenever the blockchain markets are on a roll.

Currently, cryptos are getting rolled upon, and that has an indirect, negative impact on NVDA stock. As blockchain reward tokens decline in price, the energy-intensive mining process becomes less economically viable. This in turn reduces demand for mining-specific GPUs.

All told, investors like NVDA stock. The main concern, though, is whether the underlying company can justify its premium.

Strong Expectations But Can NVDA Stock Deliver?

As is usually the case, the Street’s expectations for NVDA stock are strong ahead of the tech firm’s second-quarter fiscal 2019 earnings report. However, critics fear that no company can perpetually run to the top uninterrupted. Will NVDA continue to bring home the goods, or should stakeholders take some profits off the table?

Let’s take a look at the numbers: For Q2, consensus estimates peg NVDA earnings-per-share at $1.66. This is firmly near the higher-end of the estimate spectrum, which ranges from $1.49 to $1.77. In the year-ago quarter, Nvidia delivered an EPS of 92 cents. The consensus at the time was 70 cents.

If the company hits its target, EPS would grow over 80% year-over-year. Although it’s an ambitious target, it’s not without precedent. In Q2 fiscal 2018, EPS skyrocketed 130% year-over-year. And in Q2 fiscal 2017, shareholders enjoyed 700% EPS growth.

Significantly, the last time Nvidia missed its consensus earnings target was in Q2 fiscal 2016. Given its momentum and track record, a miss this time around appears unlikely.

On the revenue side, covering analysts expect to $3.1 billion. Like the earnings sentiment, this is near the high-end of individual forecasts, which range from $2.9 billion to $3.2 billion. In the year-ago quarter, Nvidia delivered $2.2 billion.

Sales growth might be a tricky area for NVDA stock. If the company hits the target, this would represent nearly 41% year-over-year growth. That said, the markets are focused on cryptocurrencies. In the last quarter, management warned that crypto-related equipment sales would fall sharply.

On one hand, Wall Street expects growth pressures from the blockchain markets. On the other hand, Nvidia’s other businesses have to pick up the slack. How well it does that remains a question.

Despite Maturity, Opportunities Abound for Nvidia

I’m not breaking new ground when I say that the low-hanging fruit for NVDA stock is gone. Nvidia is a matured organization: It is well past the time of being a disruptive upstart. Management’s top priorities are to remain the alpha dog, and to quickly dominate in burgeoning industries.

Nvidia’s strong financials should help ensure the former goal. The company features a favorable cash-to-debt ratio, which gives the semiconductor firm many options. In my opinion, the best option is for investments in research and development. This flexibility lays the groundwork for dominance in lucrative markets like automation and artificial intelligence.

And let’s not forget Nvidia’s other wildly popular segment, gaming. Currently, Nvidia is sitting on 18.4% market share in GPUs, ahead of Advanced Micro Devices’ (NASDAQ:AMD) 14.9%, but well behind Intel’s (NASDAQ:INTC) 66.6%.

With video gaming and associated trends such as esports only becoming stronger, I expect Nvidia to steal more market share. That’s a growth opportunity that can justify the rich premium for NVDA stock.

The bottom line is that this is the Nvida that we’re talking about. While it does have challenges, I’m not willing to bet against its consistent track record.

As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/08/nvidia-stock-has-an-ambitious-but-beatable-q2-target/.

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