Musk Is a Blessing And a Curse for Tesla Stock

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Tesla stock - Musk Is a Blessing And a Curse for Tesla Stock

Source: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock has not enjoyed a smooth ride in 2018. The electric vehicle giant’s stock retreated amid management turmoil, it missed production quotas, and its CEO, Elon Musk, exhibited unsettling behavior. After Tesla reported a profit for the third quarter and its production reached record levels during the period, Tesla stock rebounded and again began to close in on record highs.

This turning point leaves many investors wondering whether TSLA stock will surge to new records or drop again. However, given the lingering concerns over Musk’s behavior, I would stay away from Tesla stock at these levels.

The Outlook of Tesla Stock Has Dramatically Improved

Under Musk’s leadership, Tesla’s financial results have improved dramatically. The company ‘s Q3 profit sent Tesla stock surging to record highs when other high-flying tech equities such as Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) were sinking meaningfully.

TSLA maintains what I called in earlier articles a “vision premium,” meaning that the valuation of Tesla stock is elevated by the euphoria surrounding its cutting-edge technology. Its market cap of about $65 billion exceeds GM’s (NYSE:GM) market cap of just under $50 billion.

Analysts expect the company’s top line to increase at an average annual rate of 35% over the next five years. Moreover, thanks to its profits, TSLA trades at a forward price-earnings ratio of 64. While Tesla stock is not cheap, other tech firms currently trade at higher forward multiples.

Also, the demand for Tesla’s electric vehicles is strong. Despite record production of 80,142 cars in Q3, TSLA still cannot meet demand. The company’s revenue outlook reflects this strong demand.

Wall Street predicts that the company’s revenue growth will come in at 80.8% this year and 37.8% in 2019. Tesla’s top-line growth could exceed those expectations after it cut its car prices in China in the wake of Beijing’s auto tariff cuts.

Musk Is the Best Friend and the Worst Enemy of Tesla Stock

Most of Tesla’s challenges have been caused by Musk, who has simultaneously become Tesla’s most valuable asset and its most significant liability. On the one hand, his creative genius and work ethic have made Tesla what it is today and have enabled it to become profitable. In an industry notorious for destroying startups before they take off, TSLA appears poised to succeed.

Still, like the man for whom the company was named, Nikola Tesla, Musk is a creative genius who exercises poor people and business skills. The 3 a.m. tweets that prompted federal investigations, the controversy surrounding his statement about taking TSLA private, and his so-called “abusive relationship” with many employees within the company have also caused concern.

Musk’s Behavior Breeds Uncertainty

But even after Musk made some unsettling statements during his recent 60 Minutes interview, Tesla stock did not fall. Perhaps after TSLA became profitable, many investors decided that they could live with Musk’s behavior.

Still, the CEO breeds uncertainty, and that uncertainty has hindered Tesla stock in the past.  I expect Musk’s public conduct to remain a headwind for TSLA.

The Bottom Line on Tesla Stock

Although Tesla appears well-positioned to succeed, Elon Musk will probably prevent Tesla stock from advancing much further. Without a doubt, Musk has become one of the most gifted innovators in America’s private sector. However, like many previous creative individuals, he lacks some of the leadership skills that build investors’ confidence.

TSLA stock now trades near its record highs. Since TSLA is now profitable and has proven its ability to bounce back, I do not advocate shorting Tesla stock. However, given the stock’s record highs and the uncertainty caused by Tesla’s eccentric CEO, I will join my colleague Aaron Levitt in calling Tesla stock a “don’t buy” name.

As of this writing, Will Healy did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. You can follow Will on Twitter at @HealyWriting.

 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/12/behavior-tesla-stock-tale-two-elons/.

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