The new year brought about the revival of the tech sector trade, especial the chip stocks. As a result, Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is up big, and there is more left in it.
It is important to note that Advanced Micro Devices stock was already outperforming most stocks. It’s up almost 180% in 12 months which is more 12 times the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and 20 times the S&P 500, so the trend continues.
Consensus on Wall Street is that under the leadership of CEO Lisa Su, AMD set itself up for great success in the new world of technology. Our lives now depend on it more than ever. The global trend is to incorporate more tech into every aspect of our daily lives.
All financial transactions will be electronic soon, and we now are tethered to our smart phones 24/7 to stay plugged in. This is creating more demand for products and services from tech companies, so AMD will have that strong demand to boost its sales for decades to come. As long as they continue to execute this well, they are poised to thrive for years.
AMD Stock by the Numbers
In January, I wrote that AMD stock would continue to rally even in the face of uncertainty. It did so all of last year when investor sentiment was awful. So the stock has the trust of buyers with strong conviction and this is likely to continue.
This is rare, as the current overall rhetoric is sheepish as the S&P 500 hovers near all-time highs. Moreover, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEARCA:XLK) set a new high this week, yet AMD is still 18% below its September high mark. And therein lies the opportunity.
If this market-wide rally continues then AMD is poised to set its own records so there is at least that much of upside potential in the next few months.
If I am long the stock, I stay in it. Momentum traders can buy it here to capture that incremental upside. There are no guarantees we get there, but as long as there are no new macroeconomic shoes to drop, the buyers are currently in control of the stock markets.
Fundamentally, the stock is not cheap. AMD is twice more expensive than Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and four times more than Intel (NASDAQ:INTC). But as they say, you get what you pay for since it also out clobbered both of their 12 months performances. While AMD is up 180%, INTC is only up 9% and NVDA is down -16% for the same period.
When it comes to the chip sector, their popularity goes in waves. It all comes down to positioning, and AMD has the investor confidence that they did it right. This will likely continue until management makes a mistake. Currently there are no hints of that happening, as the CEO seems she has a solid vision and the right team around her to help her execute it. So until that changes, there is no reason to believe that the stock will falter.
Furthermore, we still have the geopolitical risk, especially from the tariff war. While the front with China is coming to a happy close, President Donald Trump hinted at the start of another tariff war with Europe next. Perhaps this is why the rhetoric is fraught with negativity. The danger is that it could turn into fulfilling prophecy and create a mini correction.
Luckily, the central banks are still committed to global growth. The U.S. Federal Reserve and the ECB recently recommitted themselves to keeping rates low, so the macroeconomic conditions still favors the bullish thesis. Also there is the uncertainty that the BREXIT saga brings, and that is unfolding too slowly.
Nevertheless, I can remain long AMD stock as long as it stays above its recent support zones. There are two — the first at $27 per share short term and the second at $24.50. Simply stated, if the stock markets are higher in a few years then so is AMD stock.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can follow him as @racernic on Twitter and Stocktwits.
