Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC) has yet to report last quarter’s results, and any current (or prospective) owners of CGC stock hoping other cannabis companies’ releases would help point the way have been disappointed.
It’s been a mixed bag thus far, with some players turning a profit, and others still not.
Still, as a group and even as individual names, pot stocks have been surprisingly contained of late. Neither surges nor stumbles have lasted long.
That may be because most traders are waiting to hear what Canopy Growth has to say about the three-month stretch in question, and how it may impact the Canopy Growth stock price.
After all, CGC is arguably the quintessential cannabis name, being the first to score a big-name partner in Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ), and subsequently acquiring a healthy collection of marijuana-related outfits.
For better or worse, the showdown that could easily create a ripple effect that affects all pot stock is coming this Wednesday.
A Hazy Picture
Aphria (NYSE:APHA) turned a profit, though mostly because of its acquisition of distributor CC Pharma. Cronos Group (NASDAQ:CRON) tripled last quarter’s revenue to report a surprising swing to profitability. The report catapulted CRON stock higher, but it failed to hold that ground.
Aurora Cannabis (NYSE:ACB) jumped as much 16% following its earnings report, but it too has already given up much of that ground as buyers began changing their minds about their buying spree.
Marijuana stocks just haven’t been able to re-create the sustained buzz they were able to inspire as recently as a year ago.
It’s arguable cannabis investors are waiting for Canopy Growth to report its numbers before the crowd can make its final assessment as to whether or not the industry has come far enough, fast enough.
Canopy’s brand diversity, consisting Tweed, Spectrum Therapeutics, DNA Genetics, CraftGrow, Doja and Maitri as well as a portfolio that offers everything from capsules, CBD oil, hemp and dried flower makes the company something of a barometer for the business, even if it’s more than $800 million in debt as a means of funding its deal-making and development.
It will be the last of the high-profile cannabis players to report, and in some regards, the last chance for the next three months the cannabis industry has to prove it wasn’t merely blowing smoke about pot’s near-term potential.
Canopy Growth Stock Earnings Outlook
To that end, as of the most recent look, analysts are looking for Canopy Growth to report revenue of $109.2 million (Canadian) for its fiscal first quarter ending in June.
That should translate into a loss of 38 cents per share (again, in Canadian dollars) of CGC stock, not much better than the loss of 40 cents per share logged in the same quarter a year earlier, before recreational marijuana had been legalized in Canada.
As a reminder, Canopy’s recreational marijuana sales fell in the fourth quarter ending in March, from $71.6 million (Canadian) to $68.9 million. Supply challenges may have been as much of a problem as demand. Medical cannabis sales fell more than 40% year-over-year.
The biggest stumbling block for investors, however, was the loss of 98 cents per share booked for the quarter in question. Analysts were only expecting a loss of 22 cents per share.
Stock-based compensation, administrative and sales-related expenses all shot higher in step with revenue growth, but shot higher than top-line growth.
Investors will undoubtedly be watching those metrics closely on Wednesday, looking for a sign that they’re wait, and investment, hasn’t been in vain.
CGC Stock at a Fork in the Road
While the showdown is largely a fundamental one, it’s also going to manifest itself on the chart at a time when CGC shares are at a make-or-break level.
The scenario could very much work for, or against, the Canopy Growth stock price.
In short, Canopy Growth shares are testing a major support line that extends back to early-2018 lows. This floor proved to be a pushoff point late last year, and so far has kept the stock from any further breakdown from May’s high.
But, it can’t hover at this precarious level forever. A decision is going to have to be made soon. The upcoming earnings report could readily force that decision be made.
And CGC is hardly the only cannabis stock in this technical situation, although Canopy Growth’s long-term support level is better defined than most.
Bottom line? This is it. For nearly two years now the cannabis hype has been palpable. Now it needs to start proving it can at least be profitable.
If Canopy Growth fails to confirm the same budding evidence that a couple of other pot players have already chipped in, things could get hairy for all of these names.
Conversely, a solid, progressive report from Canopy could catapult CGC stock — and other marijuana names with it – by pushing up and off that rising support level.
As of this writing, James Brumley did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. You can learn more about James at his site, jamesbrumley.com, or follow him on Twitter, at @jbrumley.