When iQiyi (NASDAQ:IQ) burst onto the scene, it earned the nickname of “the Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) of China.” So we know it operates in a viable segment that has years of runway ahead of it. IQ stock soared to $46 per share in June of 2018, but it has since fallen from grace and is now mired under $20 and cannot regain its momentum.
The general malaise created by the economic war between the U.S. and China has crippled all China-related stocks like IQ. So the fall from grace may not reflect a deterioration in its fundamental opportunity. In fact, year-to-date although IQ is down 13%, it is doing better than NFLX stock, which is down 18% for the same period.
What IQ Stock Needs for a Comeback
So there is a possible comeback for IQ stock. But several levels of resistance stand in the way of prior glory. What management says soon will be pivotal. To that, IQ gained some momentum last week. But technically, it is approaching heavy resistance. The zone around $18 per share has been important for at least a year. And in September, the stock failed exactly there and almost retested the Christmas correction lows from 2018. So, clearly, it’s up to the bulls to prove that they can overcome it this time.
The first order of business for the buyers is to keep the iQyi stock price above $17 per share to retain control of the price action. This will allow them to maintain the higher-low trend while they attack the resistance neckline and this won’t be easy. The 12-month point of control is near $18.50 and these usually are strong resistance on the way up. This is where bulls and bears have agreed to fight it out hard the most in the past 12 months.
Neither side will want to let it go easily.
But it’s not all about technicals. IQ management will have the stage early November and they can tell their fundamental story. The one thing that they must do is meet or beat the expectations but most importantly guide higher going forward. Wall Street has no patience for timid forecasts. They need an emphatically strong story for the next quarter. Nevertheless, the short-term reaction to earnings events is almost completely binary. So from a trading perspective, earnings events have a lot of guesswork.
So investors in IQ stock for the next two weeks have to be nimble and tactical. The improved rhetoric from the U.S. and China economic war has helped the stock stabilize a bit. But it’s not out of the woods yet because nothing has really changed. The negotiations are still ongoing and there is talk of a deal. But there’s nothing in writing yet so it can all fall apart with one headline. This will affect the momentum that IQ stock and it’s Chinese cohorts.
So conviction is medium at best in any short-term IQ trade. Investors need to remember that headlines cut both ways. If they finally actually ink a deal between the U.S. and China, all China-based stocks will soar, and IQ stock has a lot of ground to make up.
If by any chance the bulls are able to overcome the current short-term resistance, they will then have to contend with an even bigger failure level at $20 per share. This is an even more pronounced pivot level, so it’s even harder than $18 a share. The options market may provide a safer way to bet on IQ for the next few weeks. Emphasis on the word bet because given the headline risk and the earnings event there’s a lot of guesswork involved in trading IQ stock.
This is not the same as to say that fundamentals don’t matter, because they do.
However for the time being, the strategy is hostage to external factors. Clearly IQ provides a service that is in demand. It is in fact dubbed the Netflix of China, but it also still needs to grow into its valuation. Actual metrics are murky, so the chart price action is more reliable from the trading perspective. They say that price is truth and it applies to this case during this volatile period. Check the emotions at the door and trade the tape in play.
Nicolas Chahine is the managing director of SellSpreads.com. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Join his live chat room for free here.
