I don’t want to make any strong pronouncement about Dogecoin (CCC:DOGE-USD) being dead. Usually, such declarations have a way of haunting those who make them. Plus, this is the cryptocurrency world we’re talking about. Anything can happen. Having said that, DOGE is falling hard and its downward trek represents a harbinger for other popular cryptos.
For one thing, you can make the argument that Dogecoin became a victim of its own success. As you’re probably aware, DOGE is one of the favorite topics that Elon Musk of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) loves to tweet about. And the narrative truly hit a peak when Musk twice mentioned arguably the most controversial of cryptos on Saturday Night Live. But those looking for a rally to $1 or more were severely disappointed.
You can tell that inexperienced traders drove the overriding sentiment for DOGE because many if not most of them failed to understand a basic principle about investing in any market: when everyone bets on the same horse, this dramatically reduces the probability of anyone receiving a robust payout. Plus, with so much hype surrounding DOGE and other meme cryptos, the SNL thing was a jump-the-shark moment.
But easily the biggest warning sign came from the price chart. While much debate rages regarding the validity of technical analysis, certain chart patterns stand out more than others due to their reliability. For quite a while, I warned about the implications of Dogecoin’s printing of a head-and-shoulders pattern. Sure enough, DOGE slipped badly along with other popular emotionally driven cryptos.
Still, such volatility typically arouses the buy-the-dip call to action among social media traders. To be fair, I believe that we will eventually get that moment. But for now, I think investors should be prepared to ride out some terrible red ink before cryptos become a buy again. That said, here are a handful of digital assets to avoid.
- 0x (CCC:ZRX-USD)
- Civic (CCC:CVC-USD)
- BitTorrent (CCC:BTT-USD)
- Stellar Lumens (CCC:XLM-USD)
- DigiByte (CCC:DGB-USD)
- Decentraland (CCC:MANA-USD)
- NEM (CCC:XEM-USD)
Above all else, I encourage InvestorPlace readers to perform their due diligence rather than listen to random folks recommending everyone to “HODL.” Look, the reality is that if you had sold prior to this fallout, you would have had more funds to HODL with. Use this time to learn an important lesson: be brutally cold and calculated with your investments.
Cryptos Headed Toward the Crypt: 0x (ZRX)
A few years ago, I bought some 0x on a whim. At the time, each unit of the digital asset was trading for approximately 80 cents. It eventually went south after printing what I thought was a bullish recovery pattern. From there, I simply forgot that I owned ZRX until the booming rally in cryptos that started late last year.
After 0x shot well above the $1 threshold, I decided to pull out. In hindsight, it wasn’t exactly the greatest decision as ZRX would rise above the $2 level. By then, I was wondering if I had made the biggest mistake of my life, at least as it related to cryptos. But I’m glad that I stuck to my guns and didn’t buy in at such a lofty valuation.
As I write this, 0x trades for a little over 60 cents. And no, I wouldn’t touch it at this moment.
Sure, I understand the fundamental appeal. Per its description on Coinmarketcap.com, the 0x platform is exceptionally flexible, offering a wide range of applications. But guess what? So do other blockchain projects. With the ugliness in the charts and overall bearishness for cryptos, ZRX could potentially fall to around the 30-cent level.
Very likely, I’m going to look like an idiot by the end of this gallery but when it comes to cryptos, I’m an open book. Admittedly, like 0x above, I bought into Civic tokens rather haphazardly. Without doing any substantive research into its blockchain platform, I simply put some funds into CVC. In other words, I did exactly what I warned you earlier not to do.
While I’m being a hypocrite, I might as well say that understanding the fundamentals of cryptos and tokens is overrated. If a digital asset is going to rise, it’s going to rise. But please hear me out: I got crazy lucky with CVC, having bought the tokens before they exploded higher. In the 0x case, I bought before the ZRX tokens collapsed.
If you can’t handle the cruel binarism of cryptos, you shouldn’t invest in this space.
Later on, I discovered that Civic’s underlying appeal is that it’s a blockchain-derived identity management solution. Essentially, it allows users to access trust-based networks without having to disclose too much personal information. It’s very intriguing. But the biggest problem is that investor sentiment weakened considerably. I wouldn’t be surprised if CVC fell below 10 cents.
Cryptos Headed Toward the Crypt: BitTorrent (BTT)
On paper, BitTorrent is an intriguing concept. As you may know, BitTorrent initially started off as a popular peer-to-peer (P2P) file-sharing network. Its original goal “was to disrupt the legacy entertainment industry and how consumers obtain content,” per Coinmarketcap.com’s description. However, that didn’t quite work out. Eventually, BitTorrent returned as a social media app with features similar to Snap’s (NYSE:SNAP) Snapchat.
But where BTT really made news was when BitTorrent bought DLive, which is a livestreaming platform similar to YouTube. However, the similarity is only similar in the interface and format. Where DLive really attracted users is that anything used to go without censorship. Invariably, this attracted domestic extremists because freedom of speech and stuff.
Unfortunately, DLive gained notoriety following the Jan. 6 situation in Washington D.C. So, from what I understand now, DLive content cannot go beyond certain boundaries, which seems to me to defeat the purpose of a censorship-free platform.
More critically, traders have lost interest in the underlying BTT token. It’s probably due for more downside given that other, more reputable tokens and cryptos are also due for pain.
Stellar Lumens (XLM)
Please don’t mistake this article as a hit piece on cryptos that I no longer own and take some pleasure watching them crumble. For the last remaining digital assets on this list, I do have a long position on them. Of course, I want them to fly to the moon — and maybe they will someday. I just don’t think that day is imminent.
Case in point is Stellar Lumens. One of the first utilitarian altcoins (alternative cryptos), Coinmarketcap.com describes Stellar as “an open network that allows money to be moved and stored. When it was released in July 2014, one of its goals was boosting financial inclusion by reaching the world’s unbanked — but soon afterwards, its priorities shifted to helping financial firms connect with one another through blockchain technology.”
Unlike some of my fortuitous trades in cryptos, I actually knew what I was getting myself involved in when I took a shot with XLM. But earlier this year, I noticed that the altcoin started to print wild trading action. I felt uncomfortable and dumped out.
Though in hindsight I exited too early, I’m glad I exited from most of my position. I’m holding some in case stuff happens. But I probably won’t add to my position unless XLM retests the 10-cent level.
Cryptos Headed Toward the Crypt: DigiByte (DGB)
Including DigiByte on list of cryptos to be leery of hurts me because I was one of DGB’s earliest proponents in the mainstream financial media space. And I’m not just saying that. In 2018, I wrote about 20 cryptos to buy, which included DigiByte. Back then, DGB was trading hands at a little over 3 cents, which means you would still be profitable at the current price of 4.13 cents.
But for those who bought DigiByte coins above a dime, is there any hope for a rebound back to those levels? With cryptos, you can never say never — that much everyone can agree on. However, I’m afraid it’s unlikely in the near term. Indeed, you should be prepared to wait a few years before sentiment turns positive again.
There’s no doubting that the fundamentals for DigiByte are compelling: it’s a better, faster and more secure way to crypto. But you can scream about the fundamentals all you want. If investors don’t want to buy, that’s where the story ends.
Frankly, the bearish chart pattern for DGB — as it is with other cryptos — is sharply negative. I wouldn’t think about acquiring until it at least falls to the 2-cent level.
Another one of my haphazard plays in the broader digital asset world, with Decentraland, I have somewhat of an excuse for my speculation. Rather than assess the fundamentals for MANA, I studied the token’s chart pattern. At the time of my acquisition, it appeared poised to make an upside move. So I figured, why not?
Like some of the other tokens and cryptos in my portfolio, I later looked into the underlying project. Essentially, it’s a virtual reality project which “allows users to create, experience, and monetize content and applications,” per Coinmarketcap.com. Given the popularity of modular video game platforms like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX) where people can concoct their own digital environments and share them with other gamers, Decentraland offers significant relevance.
Therefore, if relevance is the pivotal factor for why a token moves higher, MANA would be an easy buy. Unfortunately, that hasn’t proven to be the case. As things stand now, investors have lost confidence in cryptos, which has translated to downstream pain for other digital assets.
If there’s any positive, you still have a chance to exit MANA before it slips to 20 cents or worse.
Cryptos Headed Toward the Crypt: NEM (XEM)
I’m going to remember NEM as this was one of the first altcoins I ever purchased. Thank goodness it wasn’t the only one. My greed led me to so many other opportunities so I’m not going to complain about my losses in this coin, which has the confusing symbol XEM.
Nevertheless, the losses that I’m absorbing is steep — roughly 50% of my average acquisition price. What’s scary is that I got in early.
So all I can do at this point is to urge you to learn from my mistakes. First, you’ve got to learn when to call it quits. During the late 2017 to early 2018 bull run, I had an opportunity to sell NEM at close to $2. That would have been my ten-bagger. Instead, I’m holding the bag of crypto excrement that could be worth nothing soon.
Second, make your investment decisions based on your research and insights. Don’t listen to random voices on the internet who are encouraging you to HODL irrespective of outside circumstances. Because remember — with these volatile assets, you are more likely to lose than you are to win.
On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in DOGE, XLM, DGB, MANA and XEM. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare.