As I write this, Ripple’s (CCC:XRP-USD) XRP coin is down 6.6% over the last seven days at 57 cents. After its recent downtrend in price, the crypto is a long way from its prior highs. But in a recent post, FXStreet suggested XRP’s price could go to $3.50 if it were to hold a key support level.
Now, I’ll admit I’m no fan of technical analysis — primarily because I don’t have the patience to understand all those squiggly lines. That said, I don’t have a problem if technical analysis is your thing. I’ve seen plenty of examples of how it can work successfully.
But given the downward direction of most cryptocurrencies at the moment, a jump by more than 500% in the next few months seems highly improbable.
Am I wrong? Let’s consider the possibilities.
The Case for $3.50 in Ripple Is Weak
Whether I’m studying a stock or a cryptocurrency, I like to consider the probabilities of something occurring. In this case, it’s the odds of XRP hitting $3.50 in 2021.
On one occasion in Ripple’s nine-year existence, XRP hit a price above $3. That was in January 2018, when it got as high as $3.84. The next-closest level it climbed to was $1.96 in April 2021.
So, except for one time more than three years ago, Ripple has traded well under $2. Based on this information, I would argue Ripple’s odds of getting to $2 this year are twice as good as its odds of reaching $3.50.
But since XRP has already gained 150% in 2021 and cryptos are trending lower, it seems unlikely that Ripple’s coin can mount such a monumental comeback.
InvestorPlace technical analysis guru Bret Kenwell discussed Ripple on July 13. He suggested that it has a decent chart and could move higher.
“Notice how [Ripple] rallied more than 800% from the start of the year to its highs in mid-April before being decimated on the downside. That said, the crypto does have some positives despite being down 68% from the highs,” Kenwell wrote.
Ultimately though, Kenwell argued that the Bitcoins (CCC:BTC-USD) and Ethereums (CCC:ETH-USD) of the world will survive in the long haul. That makes them the most sensible crypto investments in a bear market.
Should XRP drop below its 50-cent support levels, its price could fall to the mid-30 cent-range in no time. That’s a long way from $3.50.
But All Hope Is Not Lost for $3.50
As my colleague pointed out, Ripple gained 800% between the start of 2021 and its mid-April high. If XRP were to increase by the same amount, it would reach a price of $5.17. That’s 47% higher than $3.50. So, yes, anything is possible.
Is it probable? That’s a whole different kettle of fish. I could not possibly recommend someone buy XRP with this kind of near-term target in mind.
Looking further out, I could see $2 in 2022 and $3.50 in 2023. But that’s only if cryptocurrencies in general drift higher during the next 30 months. If they remain stuck in neutral or move backward, utility or no utility, XRP doesn’t stand a chance.
In late May, I suggested that speculative investors should buy Ripple under $1 because I thought it couldn’t drop much more than it already had. At the time, the price was around 97 cents. Instead, it’s managed to lose 40% of its value in the seven weeks since.
“At the end of April, when XRP was trading around $1.36, I argued that it was due for a correction. This despite InvestorPlace’s William White providing readers with several expert predictions of $2 or more by the end of the year,” I wrote on May 25. “I didn’t have any particular inside scoop on Ripple. I merely felt it had gone too far, too fast.”
If you’re a speculative investor, I would argue that Ripple’s odds of falling by another 36% are considerably higher than its odds of rising 75% to $1. I would hold off on buying XRP for a few weeks until it and other cryptos regain their footing.
As for getting to $3.50, I don’t think that’s in the cards for Ripple in 2021.
On the date of publication, Will Ashworth did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
Will Ashworth has written about investments full-time since 2008. Publications where he’s appeared include InvestorPlace, The Motley Fool Canada, Investopedia, Kiplinger, and several others in both the U.S. and Canada. He particularly enjoys creating model portfolios that stand the test of time. He lives in Halifax, Nova Scotia. At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
