Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) rallied 25% in the last three weeks. Should we chase it from here? Our human instinct is to chase and we now call it “FOMO.” The answer for AMZN stock is a cautious yes, but with many important nuances. In other words, I would not stop reading to go load up on stock without knowing the details.
Wall Street eked out a win on Tuesday, pulling out of a pre-open dip. This is significant because all stocks are struggling to find footing, including AMZN. To add wrinkles to its particular stock story, it just split 20 to one. Now the price is much lower, so more investors can venture into it.
In reality, AMZN was always a “buy” on the dips. This is why it rallied 5,000% out of the 2008 crisis. Under the leadership of founder and former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Jeff Bezos, that team thrived to the nth degree. There hasn’t been a better example of how a growth company should execute. I contend that they never stopped being a startup.
AMZN Stock Had a Ton of Skeptics
Don’t trust the experts with their opinions on it. They got it wrong for a decade. AMZN did not have an easy cruise because consensus doubted their unconventional methods. Wall Street fought them tooth and nail over running thin margins.
In reality, they were overspending to build an empire that now is the second largest private employer. Moreover, it was mostly organic cash, so they were not hemorrhaging. Nevertheless, the experts were skeptics until the reality of AMZN stock’s success was too obvious.
Now, they simply cannot deny the success since the price-to-sales ratio is the lowest among all the giga-caps. AMZN has the cheapest metric for growth out of all of them.
This stock split doesn’t affect the company financials mathematically. Nor does it change the value of the stock instantly. But the new mantra is that Wall Street loves to chase splits. So arguably, the event was enough to drive interest in the stock. Therefore, it is undeniable that it affected the stock price positively from that perspective.
I’m excited about it becoming a smaller dollar stock because that makes it easier to sell puts on bad days. That’s my favorite way of getting bullish on a stock when everybody else is bearish on it.
There Aren’t Internal Risks
Fundamentally, Amazon has been untouchable so far. But I reserve the right to change my mind if the new leadership shows me cracks in the system. I could complain about the new CEO announcing a buyback and a split on his first outing. Are they already running out of ideas? Moreover, I do worry about the impact of the high fuel prices on their free delivery service. If that situation doesn’t abate, they may lose a selling point. I shutter to think about the repercussions of that announcement on the stock price.
For now, I remain on the bullish side of the fence. However, I am not a perma-bull. There are levels that I deem important for the next few weeks. There is undeniable resistance at $133 per share. If the bulls can take that out, they can overshoot another 12% from there. Conversely, there is strong support through 10% below current prices. And if the bears are able to take that out, they can overshoot lower from there.
However, unless there’s a major problem in the market, I would look to buy that dip. In the long run, it should have more upside potential than downside risk. Therefore, my conclusion, if you haven’t guessed it yet, is to stay engaged bullishly, but not all in.
Remember that stocks do not trade in a vacuum. They need a help from the indices. Next week is a massive monthly options expiration contract and the experts are nervous. There’s likely to be higher volatility as we approach the weekend. Not to mention that the Federal Reserve will also announce its next move with rates.
On the date of publication, Nicolas Chahine did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.