Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) stock continues to show signs of reliable upward trajectory as approval from the Food & Drug Administration becomes more and more likely. That fact alone is a reasonable indicator that speculative investors should consider investing currently. Such investors should look at the market and how Novavax’s vaccine, Nuvoxavid, fits in. There does seem to be a strong market fit. That could spell strong performance once FDA approval is given.
FDA authorization of Nuvoxavid is looking like a near certainty at this point. Earlier in June the FDA’s vaccine advisory panel voted to fully back its vaccine on the basis that its benefits outweigh its risks.
That panel voted 21-0 to recommend the drug with one abstention. That means that judgment now rests with the FDA on whether to grant Nuvoxavid emergency authority or not. But given that the FDA has historically agreed with the vaccine advisory panel 78% of the time, the odds are in Novavax’s favor.
This should be very welcome news for the company which has been long-delayed while other vaccines have received approval and strong subsequent sales.
Potential Market Niche
One of the strongest factors in favor of Novavax’s vaccine is that it is protein-based unlike the vaccines from Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX), which rely on messenger RNA (mRNA). Currently, the only vaccine available in the U.S. that does not rely on mRNA technology is that from Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ).
Fortunately for Novavax, Dr. Peter Marks, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation, believes there is a market for such a protein-based vaccine in the U.S. market.
Marks and others believe that Nuvoxavid could eat away at the hesitancy of Americans who fear mRNA technology as protein-based technology has been used in vaccines for longer and has a verifiable track record of efficacy and safety.
]However, Nuvoxavid isn’t without its own concerns. Myocarditis, inflammation of the heart muscle, has been observed in 6 recipients out a 40,000 sample size. Myocarditis was also observed in recipients of mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech.
Nevertheless, the signs point to a possibility of greater uptake based on the fact that the technology is better accepted and given that similar rates of myocarditis were observed in placebo drug administration.
The Bottom Line on NVAX Stock
There’s no doubt that investing in Novavax is risky. This is a clear gamble but FDA approval in the U.S. looks imminent and that alone should send prices up significantly.
The notion that uptake by the American public could be significant is less sure but possible nonetheless. The fact remains that NVAX stock carries a target price that is 200% greater than its current price. FDA approval will help to close that gap.
On the date of publication, Alex Sirois did not have (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.