Do you believe me now that it was never a new bull market?
Do you believe me now that we are in a credit event?
Because the stock prices of major banks do.
I’m going to keep hammering this until people get it — I am NOT a doomer or a perma-bear. I look at intermarket relationships to assess what the market itself is screaming as everyone falls for an old narrative. And you better believe the market is screaming right here, right now. Did you know that, as I write this, small-caps are about to take out the year’s low from the March regional bank crisis?
What melt-up?
What new bull market?
Have you even been looking at the large banks? Look at Citigroup (NYSE:C). You think this is a good thing? That this is what you see in a bull market?
Have you looked at Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)? This is not some microcap company. This is not small-caps that look horrible. You really think this is healthy market movement? That we aren’t on the edge of a financial crisis when stocks act like this?
This isn’t some U.S.-specific dynamic. Global financial stocks are getting wrecked here. Look at Barclays (NYSE:BCS), and tell me again we are in a new bull market.
What Comes Next
This is not fear-mongering. It drives me absolutely crazy how people think about things. How can anyone looking at any of these charts think we aren’t in a crisis right now? All of the analysis I’ve put out — all of my signals — with specific timing has all largely been right and it can’t be denied anymore.
If we are indeed in a global crisis right here, and right now, then yes — that does argue that the flight to safety trade in Treasuries has bottomed. It’s volatile for sure, but Treasuries are starting to show the exact right kind of behavior.
The Fed overtightened and is about to send the entire world into a global margin call because of what they did. There is no precedent for what happens next. We went through the fastest rate hike cycle in history, and the complacency is mind-blowing here.
I think this could get ugly quickly, and as I said last week, I believe the risk of an imminent stock market crash is here. And it turns out that the performance of bank stocks is starting to agree with me.
On the date of publication, Michael Gayed did not hold (either directly or indirectly) any positions in the securities mentioned in this article. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.
