7 Cryptos to Buy (or Avoid) Amid Fading Hopes of a Fed Pivot

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  • Bitcoin (BTC): Bitcoin is attempting to build out a rounding bottom pattern but must fight near-term pressure.
  • Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum is also trying to carve out some positive momentum amid a downbeat environment.
  • Tether (USDT): Tether has been relatively weak compared to its dollar peg, thus raising eyebrows.
  • Cryptos once again find themselves struggling with the Fed issuing a rather hawkish tone. Read on to find out about the outlook of four more risk-on assets.
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cryptos - 7 Cryptos to Buy (or Avoid) Amid Fading Hopes of a Fed Pivot

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It wasn’t too long ago that the cryptocurrency sector — combined with other risk-on asset categories – saw sentiment tick up in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s pivot to a more accommodating monetary policy. However, the May jobs report came in hotter than expected, dashing hopes of the central bank reducing borrowing costs. Combined with other headwinds, cryptos struggled recently for momentum.

The matter really stinks because the virtual currency complex offers some significant bright spots. For example, Australia’s largest stock exchange approved its first spot-crypto exchange-traded fund (ETF). The ETF will commence trading on June 20. More broadly, it’s encouraging that the bulls have consistently kept the market value of all cryptos above the $2.2 trillion level.

Unfortunately for those who prefer risk-on ideas, the latest rumblings from the Fed indicates that policymakers are hesitant to deploy a dovish monetary framework. If an interest rate cut occurs this year, it may only happen once. That’s not what digital asset investors want to hear.

Still, the sector is incredibly resilient. Let’s break down what may lie in store for cryptos this week.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD)

Up trend Technical graph of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) in futuristic concept, BITI ETF is a Bitcoin short fund for investors betting against Bitcoin.
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With Bitcoin (BTC-USD) losing the $70,000 psychological benchmark and failing to hold onto certain technical levels, circumstances don’t look particularly auspicious for the original blockchain asset. In the 24 hours since late Monday night, BTC lost more than 1% of its market value. Over the trailing seven days, it’s down nearly 4%.

Looking at the charts, Bitcoin frankly faces a treacherous near-term picture. With the recent bout of volatility, the virtual currency is trading conspicuously below its 50-day moving average, a key barometer of near-term market health. In addition, BTC is more than 3% below its 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), another key level gauging near-term sentiment.

Is there a positive story here? It’s possible that Bitcoin could be in the final stages of charting a rounding bottom pattern. You can clearly see a peak-to-trough pattern materialize between March and early May. The speculation is that another peak will materialize, boosting BTC and other cryptos.

It wouldn’t be out of the question given the resilience of the blockchain ecosystem. Still, recently fading volume metrics represent a dynamic to watch closely.

Ethereum (ETH-USD)

A concept image of a virtual coin based on the Ethereum logo.
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With Bitcoin sending cryptos downward, it’s no surprise that Ethereum (ETH-USD) encountered significant volatility. In the past 24 hours, ETH lost almost 5% of market value. Over the trailing seven days, the red ink was roughly the same — 5% down. At the moment, the digital asset’s market capitalization comes in at $419.4 billion.

Like its No. 1 counterpart, Ethereum needs to demonstrate upside momentum quickly to avoid near-term technical damage. Presently, its price sits atop its 50 DMA. Again, as a barometer of near-term market health, investors will be eyeballing this level closely. Any weakness from here on out could spark a reactionary selloff among the weak hands.

There is some positive news and that is the possibility of the aforementioned rounding bottom pattern materializing. Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum saw a peak price in March, which then crumbled into mid-May. From there, the bulls are attempting to spark a turnaround.

It would be easier to believe in the bullish narrative but the recent volatility is distracting. That and the recent fading volume doesn’t do many favors.

Tether (USDT-USD)

Image of four tehter coins
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Due to the status of Tether (USDT-USD) as a stablecoin — or digital asset pegged to a fiat currency — some investors might overlook the asset in terms of analytics. Generally, people aren’t attempting to extract capital gains out of USDT due to its limited movement. But it does indeed move: it’s not a perfect peg to the dollar.

This dynamic provides a powerful canvas that crypto investors can leverage to their advantage. Whenever Tether rises above its peg, meaning USDT tokens are worth more than their dollar units, sentiment for cryptos may be positive. Conversely, when Tether slips below its peg, that could indicate pessimism or at least skepticism toward virtual currencies.

Interestingly, in the trailing seven days, USDT found itself mostly below its peg to the greenback. As of late Monday night, Tether bulls are attempting to drive the token to parity and beyond. However, the price action has been incredibly choppy.

Ideally, investors will want to see a consistently rising value of USDT relative to the dollar. However, the ratio has been choppy and net negative, warranting caution.

BNB (BNB-USD)

A Binance Coin sits in front of trading charts. Binance price predictions
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Despite its status as one of the more popular altcoins or alternative cryptos, BNB (BNB-USD), which is the digital asset tied to the Binance exchange, faces significant near-term technical challenges. In the past 24 hours, BNB dipped about 2%. Further, in the trailing one-week period, it’s down more than 4%. However, its technical profile is what matters here.

As of late Monday night, BNB is trading hands at around $595. That puts the blockchain asset just below its 50 DMA. Again, as a near-term barometer of market health, that’s problematic. Typically, the 50 DMA acts as a support line. Right now, it’s acting as upside resistance. Further, the coin is noticeably below its 20-day EMA, which stands above $619.

Regarding the positive side of the sentiment spectrum, BNB has been rising steadily higher since the March 19 session. Unfortunately, the aforementioned dip below the 50 DMA threatens to reverse this positive trend. In addition, slowly fading volume levels don’t add much regarding confidence.

At the same time, BNB can pop higher as we saw early this month. So, BNB is in wait-and-see mode.

Solana (SOL-USD)

Solana Coin (SOL-USD) in front of the Solana logo. Solana price predictions.
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Another incredibly popular altcoin, Solana (SOL-USD) truly came alive during last year’s Uptober seasonality cycle. Trading hands around $20, it eventually shot up tenfold. However, SOL has struggled mightily to hold onto the $200 level. Over the past 24 hours, SOL dipped more than 8%. In the trailing week, it cratered to the tune of over 13%.

It’s no surprise to say that Solana absolutely needs to find technical momentum. Unlike other cryptos, SOL’s downside price action takes it well below its 50 DMA. Indeed, on an intraday basis on Monday, the blockchain asset briefly dipped beneath its 200 DMA. That’s dangerous. If the virtual currency falls below that level, it could easily correct into double-digit territory.

Given the natural resilience of cryptos and the heightened awareness of key altcoins, I have a gut feeling that the bulls will attempt to drive the price above the $140 level. Already, Solana is close to this support level so $140 is a natural target.

Still, if such a move materializes, it needs to happen quickly. One of the risk factors to watch is fading volume, which has dogged many other cryptos.

XRP (XRP-USD)

A concept image for the XRP (XRP-USD) token from Ripple.
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Representing one of the oddities in the virtual currency space, XRP (XRP-USD) has long frustrated investors, including hardcore advocates of cryptos. Seemingly meandering aimlessly, XRP refuses to rise above key technical levels. However, it’s one of the best-performing digital assets this past week, gaining roughly half-a-percent. It’s also up by about the same magnitude over the trailing 24 hours.

To be sure, that’s nothing to be overly ecstatic about. Right now, at 49 cents, XRP trades below its 20-day EMA (which comes in at 50 cents). Also, it’s noticeably below its 50 DMA at 51 cents. Prior to the June 7 selloff which rattled XRP investors, the coin was slowly making its way toward the 53-cent level.

For XRP to reestablish credibility, it needs to climb above 53 cents. From there, the 61-cent level is key. This level roughly represented the highs before the April 12 and April 13 session cratered sentiment.

Now, given the resilience of cryptos, giving up on XRP right now might not be prudent. Still, the blockchain asset has truly become a show-me investment.

Toncoin (TON-USD)

Slot machine graphic in gold in silver with blue background displaying Bitcoin, Tether and Litecoin logos, symbolizing crypto slot machine/gambling
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As you’re seeing, sentiment for cryptos this past week has been nothing short of dour. What makes the matter worse is that among the top 100 virtual currencies by market cap, only a handful of blockchain assets have generated positive returns over the past seven days. One of those tokens is Toncoin (TON-USD).

In the last seven days, TON gained about 8% of market value. To be fair, the digital asset has not found an exemption when it comes to near-term volatility. During the past 24 hours, it slipped more than 4%. And like some of the other major cryptos, TON faces significant technical damage if it doesn’t generate momentum soon.

Looking at the chart, Toncoin enjoyed a clear horizontal support line at the $7.75 level. Unfortunately, recent price action sent the asset below this point. From a market sentiment perspective, TON must regain this level quickly. Otherwise, $7.75 would become a resistance barrier, further challenging the bulls in a downcast environment.

For those who are thinking about TON, I’d wait. The recent volatility looks ugly and the bulls need to show something substantive to justify the risk.

On the date of publication, Josh Enomoto held a LONG position in BTC, ETH, USDT and XRP. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.

A former senior business analyst for Sony Electronics, Josh Enomoto has helped broker major contracts with Fortune Global 500 companies. Over the past several years, he has delivered unique, critical insights for the investment markets, as well as various other industries including legal, construction management, and healthcare. Tweet him at @EnomotoMedia.


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