Oil prices leap and fall on headline news… Louis Navellier sees rate cuts coming… the age of investing with AI is here… more jobs going to AI/bots
Over the weekend, the U.S. struck three Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – with B‑2 bombers, bunker–buster bombs, Tomahawks and other munitions.
In response to the U.S. actions, Iran’s parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, ushering the possibility of a global oil choke point. Final approval will come from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
We highlighted this risk in our 6/13 Digest:
About one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through it daily, making it one of the most important passages in the world.
If it’s closed off or mined in retaliation to the Israeli strikes, the impact on oil prices could be dramatic.
According to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JP Morgan, oil could spike to $120 per barrel – possibly higher – if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz.
As I write Monday, oil prices are easing after spiking overnight.
Brent Crude (the European benchmark) popped more than 5%, pushing above $81. It’s now pulled back to $72.67.
WTI Crude (the U.S. benchmark) also hit its highest level since January before easing. It’s down to about $70.00.
For context, less than one month ago, WTI crude traded at $59.74. So, we’re building on a 20%+ rally.
Select fossil fuel leaders have also climbed. ConocoPhillips (COP) is up about 10% since the end of May; and Exxon (XOM) has tacked on around 12% over the last two weeks.
This is why, for months, we’ve encouraged investors to build positions in high-quality oil and natural gas stocks while prices were depressed. You can’t predict the exact catalyst, but when geopolitical tensions erupt, oil can surge in a heartbeat.
Looking forward, as we noted in our 6/13 Digest, even if cooler heads prevail in the Middle East, there are compelling structural reasons to be bullish on oil stocks in the back half of 2025.
Bottom line: If you hold top-tier oil/gas stocks, keep holding. And if prices drop in the coming weeks, consider establishing positions in the leaders on your watch list. Fossil fuels will continue to play a critical role in powering our global economy for years to come.
Why legendary investor Louis Navellier believes rate cuts are rapidly approaching
At last week’s June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at the current target rate of 4.25% – 4.50%.
We covered Louis’ initial reaction (which was largely positive), promising that we’d bring you his detailed analysis later. Let’s circle back.
If you’re a regular Digest reader, you’re aware of Louis’ case for why the Fed should be cutting rates today: namely, inflation has collapsed. Louis has gone on record in his service Growth Investor saying the Fed is waiting for an “Inflation Bogeyman” that has yet to materialize.
But in his latest update, this market veteran added a second reason why the Fed needs to begin cutting now: a weakening consumer.
From Louis:
Retail sales fell for the second straight month – the first time that’s happened since 2023:
- Building materials and garden store sales dropped 2.7%
- Gas station sales fell 2%, mainly due to cheaper fuel
- Vehicle sales slid 3.5%
But the biggest surprise to me was that sales at bars and restaurants declined 0.9%. That’s after they rose 1.2% in the previous month.
What this tells me is that despite cheaper gas prices, consumers were more cautious – they didn’t go out to eat and drink with their savings.
Even more troubling: Housing starts fell to their lowest level in five years.
Housing is a cornerstone of the U.S. economy. This kind of drop doesn’t happen unless rate pressure is crushing demand.
Though Louis stopped short of predicting exactly when the Fed will cut, he says it’s coming.
And maybe sooner than many traders expect…
Coming into this morning, the prevailing opinion among traders was that the first cut would arrive in September.
The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool had assigned a 71.8% probability to the Fed cutting the fed funds rate by at least one quarter-point at the September meeting.
But this morning, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said that she leans toward a cut in July as long as inflation pressures remain low.
Here’s CNBC:
In remarks for a speech in Prague, Bowman became the second central banker in recent days to suggest that President Donald Trump’s tariffs are likely to have a temporary and muted impact on prices, thus paving the way for lower rates.
“Should inflation pressures remain contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as our next meeting in order to bring it closer to its neutral setting and to sustain a healthy labor market,” she said in prepared remarks.
Traders have noticed…
Yesterday, the odds of a June cut came in at 14.5%. As I write Monday morning, they’ve jumped to nearly 23%. Of course, if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in sustainably higher oil prices, that might be a monkey wrench for cuts.
We’ll keep you updated and will bring you more from Louis as it crosses our desk.
More investors turning to AI to inform/influence their investing choices
Earlier this month, Bloomberg ran a piece titled:
Retail Stock Investors Can Now Imitate the Pros With AI Trading Tools
The topline takeaway?
The retail crowd once followed the “loudest voice,” without really understanding advanced investment concepts. They just wanted to know the next hot stock. But today, they’re increasingly turning to AI tools, giving hedge funds a run for their money.
Here’s Bloomberg:
The democratization of AI-driven platforms would change all of that, giving retail traders the ability to scan thousands of stocks and respond to real-time data as fast as sophisticated qualitative hedge funds…
Investors are already seeking opportunities in less crowded parts of the market…
Research and portfolio construction are the main areas where small investors use AI.
In March, Robinhood Markets Inc. unveiled its AI tool called Cortex, which summarizes all variables that affect the stock price and can simplify the trading process, even for more complex strategies like options, helping clients find potential trades that align with their risk thresholds.
Last Friday, we profiled the latest AI investment tool from our corporate partner, TradeSmith. In our opinion, it’s the most advanced trading technology available to retail investors.
Here’s TradeSmith CEO Keith Kaplan:
My team and I at TradeSmith are releasing a powerful new AI tool that can pinpoint a stock’s “profit window” – the ideal timeframe to trade a stock on any given day.
It’s engineered on over 120 million data points, including…
- 2 million historical price outcomes across more than 2,400 stocks over seven years
- 9 million daily forecasts that model price movements across a 21-day horizon
- Tens of millions of “validation” runs, which refine accuracy and confidence with each new day of data
And the results are stunning.
In backtests, this tool identified time windows where stocks surged so fast, it was like compressing four, eight — even nine — years of market gains into just a few weeks.
It’s much easier to see this tool in action. So, Keith is giving a live demonstration on Wednesday at 10 a.m. eastern.
He’ll also be passing along the names and tickers of three new opportunities for a July 1 “profit window” with potential to double your money or more in days.
If you want to be among the first to see this new AI in action, here’s the link to join Keith’s early-access list.
Whether you join Keith or not, it’s critical to recognize that this is where investing is headed. AI will increasingly influence market decisions that impact your portfolio.
Back to Bloomberg:
“The orders of magnitude of what becomes possible are mind-boggling,” said Jan Szilagyi, founder and CEO of Reflexivity.
“As people see the kind of the magic and the power of what has been happening in the AI space, they’ve come to understanding that this is not a 10% or a 20% improvement, it’s a hundred times difference.”
Besides the enormous trading benefit, we encourage you to join Keith on Wednesday just to learn more about how quickly AI is transforming investing. It’s eyebrow-raising – and something that do-it-yourselfers need to keep on the radar.
Another example of AI taking jobs – get ready for a lot more of this
Less than two weeks ago, news broke that Google has initiated a Voluntary Exit Program (VEP) across its U.S.-based divisions, including Search, Ads, and Core Engineering.
This follows similar actions earlier this year in other departments, such as Platforms and Devices, where voluntary buyouts preceded significant layoffs.
The subtext here is unmistakable – Google is reshaping its workforce to align with its AI-first future.
Roles in marketing, communications, search, and even research – once foundational – are increasingly viewed as automatable. This is a calculated shift away from human-heavy functions and toward AI-augmented efficiency.
Let’s be candid about what’s happening…
If your job can be done by software, it’s on borrowed time.
Google, like many of its peers, is using buyouts and restructuring to clear the runway for AI-driven operations. And while this may improve margins and speed innovation, it also signals a major labor market disruption that’s only just beginning.
Let’s return to our 10/7/24 Digest:
Imagine a billiards table with its pool balls spread about the table randomly…
Now, imagine hoisting up a corner of the table so that all the balls roll into a single pocket.
This is the financial impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on global wealth.
AI is lifting the billiards table… the pool balls are global wealth/investment capital… and the one pocket receiving all the balls are the owners of the businesses that wisely and effectively implement AI technologies.
What about the five other empty pockets?
Well, they’re the businesses that fail or are unable to adapt to next-gen AI technology or business models. They’re also the “regular Joes” who get shafted financially as AI steps in to do their jobs faster, better, and cheaper.
This is happening as we predicted – and at an accelerating pace.
One of the best things you can do is to invest in the technology that could be taking your job in the coming years
In recent months, we’ve brought you some of our analysts’ top ideas for exactly how to do this.
Here’s the latest from our technology expert Luke Lango of Innovation Investor:
The AI boom is entering a new phase.
Instead of building ever-larger models, companies are now racing to deploy them more efficiently through inferencing, which is opening the door for a new class of stock market winners.
Training demanded massive GPUs and memory. By contrast, inferencing rewards low-latency, energy-efficient chips and edge compute solutions, shifting capital flows across semiconductors, data centers, and networking.
Nvidia remains dominant, but firms like AMD, Amazon, Arista, Broadcom, Qualcomm, and Astera Labs are increasingly critical to real-world AI deployment.
The winners of this infrastructure evolution could easily be 10X opportunities.
(Disclaimer: I own AMD and Amazon.)
I’ll add that Luke just went on record saying that the biggest AI stock winners of the next few years will come from a sector driven by powerful inferencing.
It’s one that Elon Musk is obsessed with… that President Trump has recently shown interest in… one that even the late, great Steve Jobs wanted to bring to fruition; his “Final Vision.”
We’re running long today, but Luke just put together a free, new research video on this “Final Vision” which you can check out here.
And a reminder to join Keith on Wednesday at 10 a.m. eastern to learn more about not just investing in AI – but with AI.
Bottom line: AI is changing everything. Make sure you’re changing with it.
Have a good evening,
Jeff Remsburg
