Buy Amazon Stock on This Temporary, Netflix-Induced Dip

Amazon stock - Buy Amazon Stock on This Temporary, Netflix-Induced Dip

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It’s important not to confuse Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) with Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX). The seemingly unstoppable tech darling reported disappointing second quarter numbers, stock dropped roughly 10% and brought the other FANG companies with them. As of this writing, Amazon stock is down just under a percent.

But here’s the thing: besides being lumped into the same acronym and both being huge growth companies, Amazon and Netflix have very little in common. Netflix is an entertainment platform. Amazon is a digital commerce marketplace. If Netflix misses subscriber add estimates in a quarter, that says absolutely nothing about Amazon’s business and vice versa.

The investment implication, then, is very simple. If Amazon keeps dropping in sympathy with NFLX stock, then investors should take advantage of that weakness and buy the dip.

Here’s a deeper look.

Netflix Weakness Doesn’t Equal Amazon Weakness

The logic here is plain and simple. Netflix weakness does not equal Amazon weakness. Netflix runs an entertainment platform. Amazon runs an ecommerce marketplace. If fewer people than expected subscribe to the former, that says absolutely nothing about the latter.

Let’s look at the numbers.

Netflix missed their internal forecast for subscriber adds in the quarter. The last time that happened was in the first quarter of 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, Amazon reported a double beat quarter with out-sized retail and AWS sales growth, and Amazon stock rose in response.

Before that, Netflix last missed internal subscriber add forecasts in the second quarter of 2016. In the second quarter of 2016, Amazon reported a double beat quarter with out-sized retail and AWS sales growth, and Amazon stock rose in response.

The takeaway is pretty clear. Netflix has only missed internal subscriber add forecasts twice before over the past two years. Each time they did, Amazon reported blowout results just a few days later. And Amazon more than recouped losses from a sympathy sell-off with NFLX stock.

The same thing likely will happen this time around. Amazon’s website crashed during its Prime Day event. Some view that as a bad thing. But the reason it crashed is probably because of way too much traffic. That is a good thing. Amazon fixed its website quickly, and Prime Day went on, presumably with record traffic volumes.

Thus, I’m expecting this quarter to be quite good for Amazon. That makes this recent sell-off look all the more tasty.

Amazon Stock Can Reasonably Head Higher

There is no doubt about it. Valuation is a concern for Amazon stock. But there is an argument for this stock heading to $4,000 or higher in 10 years.

Amazon has essentially three businesses. There is the North America retail business, which grew at a 30%-plus rate last year and runs at just under 3% operating margins.

There is the International retail business, which grew by 23% last year and runs a slight operating loss. And then there is AWS, which is growing at a 43% and slowing rate, and runs at healthy 25% operating margins.

Over the next 10 years, these businesses will continue to grow with exceptional pace. The profitability of each business will also improve, as large revenue growth will naturally drive opex leverage.

Over the next 10 years, then, the North America retail business should be able to grow by 15-20% per year as Amazon builds out a robust offline retail business to complement its red-hot online retail business. Operating margins should trend towards 6%, which is where Walmart’s (NYSE:WMT) operating margins were before Amazon disrupted the company’s business model.

The International retail business should be able to grow around 15% per year for the same reasons. Operating margins should also trend towards 6%.

With respect to AWS, growth will inevitably slow thanks to market saturation and bigger competition. But this is still a 20% growth business over the next 10 years. Operating margins should also benefit from scale, and could head towards 30% in that time frame.

Put that all together, and I think it is possible for Amazon to do about $150 in earnings per share in 10 years. And that doesn’t include anything from the company’s entry into the logistics or pharmacy markets. A big-growth 25X forward multiple on $150 gets you to a long-term price target of $3,750.

Bottom Line on Amazon Stock

Netflix weakness doesn’t equal Amazon weakness. Moreover, historically speaking, whenever Netflix has announced a bad quarter, Amazon has bounced back and announced a great quarter a few days later.

Does that mean it is time to buy the dip? Yes. This is a stock that could very well hit $3,000 or $4,000 over the next 5 to 10 years.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long AMZN.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/07/amazon-stock-netflix-induced-dip/.

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