Time To Break Up with Match Group Stock?

Advertisement

MTCH stock - Time To Break Up with Match Group Stock?

Source: Shutterstock

When it comes to Match Group (NASDAQ:MTCH), Wall Street has had a crush on the stock. And, yes, the relationship has turned out to be a winner. During the past 12 months, MTCH stock has logged a return of 110%.

Then again, the company has been posting solid earnings. For the latest quarter, revenues jumped by 36% to $407.4 million and profits came to $99.74 million, up from $20.05 million on a year over year basis.

The full-year outlook is also upbeat, with revenues expected to range from $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. The Street had been looking for $1.6 billion

So, what now? Can we expect the good times to continue?

Well, I think there should actually be some caution right now. Let’s face it, when it comes to consumer internet properties, things can change quickly. And with MTCH stock, there are some notable risk factors.

So let’s take a look at two that stand out:

Issue #1 for MTCH Stock: The Facebook Factor

Match has been around since the early 1990s. In other words, the company has been quite adept at dealing with changes — such as the rise of mobile — as well as fending off tough competitors.  The result is that the company has become a leader in the global dating space, with properties like Tinder, PlentyOfFish and OkCupid.

Yet, the market opportunity is gaining the attention of the mega tech operators, like Facebook (NASDAQ:FB). Note that, back in May, the company announced plans to launch its own dating service.

Interestingly enough, Match CEO Mandy Ginsberg dismissed the potential threat (this was on the first-quarter earnings call). She essentially said younger people do not want to find dates on a platform that their parents or grandparents use!

No doubt, this is a good point, yet the details of Facebook’s plans are still amorphous. Besides, the company has a history of leveraging its resources to take on smaller companies. Just look at what Facebook has done with Instagram against Snap (NYSE:SNAP). It’s been brutal, as Snap’s user base has suffered.

It’s also important to note that Facebook has a data advantage. For example, until recently, many of the logins for Tinder came from the Facebook authentication feature.

And, finally, Match recently purchased a majority stake in Hinge, which operates a dating service that has a Facebook-like experience. Basically, this move looks defensive and could be an indication that Match really does consider Facebook a serious contender.

Issue #2 for MTCH Stock: Reliance on Tinder

Tinder has been a huge success story. In the latest quarter, revenues spiked by more than 150%. Consider that the app is the top-grossing in about 100 countries and is No. 2 for non-games, just behind Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX).

Tinder is an example of the innovation DNA of Match, as the app was created in-house. This is certainly rare for a large company.

Tinder has also been aggressive in adding new features. Some include video loops, a feed and location-based systems.  All these have been key in helping to improve engagement and growth.

But there is a problem — the success of MTCH stock is mostly tied to the performance of Tinder. True, this is fine if the app continues to grow. But it can be tough to sustain this, especially as the competition gets more intense.

There are already signs of slippage. In the most recent quarter, there were 368,000 new paying members, compared to 544,000 in the prior quarter.

Bottom Line on MTCH Stock

Now, I’m not predicting that MTCH stock is headed for an implosion. Again, the company has a set of great apps that do look durable. What’s more, the valuation is not out-of-whack either, with the price-to-earnings ratio at 27.

But going forward, it could be tougher to keep up the growth ramp. More importantly, Facebook is likely to remain a wild card — and could mean some turbulence for MTCH stock.

Tom Taulli is the author of High-Profit IPO StrategiesAll About Commodities and All About Short SellingFollow him on Twitter at @ttaulli. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books. They include Artificial Intelligence Basics and the Robotic Process Automation Handbook. His upcoming book is called Generative AI: How ChatGPT and other AI Tools Will Revolutionize Business.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/07/time-break-up-match-group-mtch-stock/.

©2024 InvestorPlace Media, LLC