Why Coca-Cola Stock Will Keep On Truckin’ In This Volatile Market

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KO stock - Why Coca-Cola Stock Will Keep On Truckin’ In This Volatile Market

Source: Coca-Cola

The stock market has been exceptionally volatile in October. But, one stock that has weathered the storm nicely is beverage giant Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO). Equipped with a 3.3% dividend yield, a historically normal valuation and a product portfolio with enduring and stable demand, KO stock has not whipsawed with the stock market in October.

In fact, while the S&P 500 is down 9% for October, KO stock is actually up 2% month-to-date.

As if KO investors didn’t have a lot to cheer about already, the company gave them more reason to cheer recently with strong third-quarter numbers that topped expectations on both the top and bottom lines. KO stock popped to just 2% shy of all-time highs in response to the Q3 print.

Let’s repeat that for emphasis purposes. KO stock now trades just 2% shy of all time highs. That is pretty impressive. The S&P 500 is 9% off recent highs. The Dow Jones is 8% off recent highs. The Nasdaq Composite is 12% off recent highs. Every FANG stock is in correction territory, and all but Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) are well into bear market territory.

Amid all this, KO stock is just 2% off its all-time highs.

In other words, Coca-Cola stock is thriving where others are struggling. That is because recent market struggles are the result of overstretched valuations, uncertain growth prospects, and lack of downside protection without growth. Coca-Cola stock isn’t afflicted by any of those risks, and Q3 numbers proved that.

As such, so long as this market remains turbulent, KO stock will outperform.

Coca-Cola’s Earnings Underscore Strong Fundamentals

Coca-Cola just reported third-quarter numbers, and those numbers were quite good. Importantly, they underscored that despite declining popularity of sugary carbonated drinks, Coca-Cola is still managing to grow through new and diverse products.

Coca-Cola’s third-quarter numbers comprised 6% organic revenue growth, nearly 600 basis points of operating margin expansion, and 14% earnings growth. Those are pretty good numbers, and they don’t agree with the secular trend that Coca-Cola and other sugary carbonated drinks are losing popularity.

Make no mistake, that is happening. But, Coca-Cola has managed to more than offset those gradual drops with robust growth elsewhere in the company’s beverage portfolio. For example, the company is seeing robust growth in its premium water line-up that comprises Smartwater, Vitaminwater and Topo Chico. Meanwhile, Coke Zero reported its best quarter in ten years as consumers continue to shift from Coke to Coke Zero, while tea brands Fuze and Gold Peak continued on their robust growth trajectory.

Essentially, strong third-quarter numbers affirmed that despite the declining popularity of sugary carbonated drinks, Coca-Cola remains a growth company because of its diverse exposure to the entire beverage category through new products like premium waters, teas and sports drinks. Importantly, this exposure is only growing. KO is making a big jump into coffee with the acquisition of Costa Limited, and has recently made minority investments into sport drink BodyArmor and cold pressed juicer Made Group.

So long as Coca-Cola continues to broaden its product portfolio, this company’s growth rate should track the global beverage growth rate. Because the global beverage industry is a largely stable one without much variance, KO’s growth rates are also largely stable without much variance. That is a much appreciated attribute in today’s volatile markets.

The KO Stock Price Is Very Stable

The most attractive thing about KO stock is that it is stable. During periods of robust growth, investors tend to forget the attractiveness of stability and pile into high-flying growth names. But, during periods of slowing growth, investors are reminded of the attractiveness of stability as those high-flying tech names shed 20%-plus in a hurry, and they pile into stable names like KO.

That is exactly where we are today. We are at the back-end of decade long global economic expansion with the Fed tightening and trade risks rising. In that sort of environment, investors are hesitant to price in big growth, and as such, are applying big discounts to big growth names whose value comes from profits that are way down the road.

You have a completely different situation with KO stock. Everyone in the world drinks Coca-Cola’s beverages. They have for a long time, still do, and will continue to do so, regardless of economic backdrop. As such, KO stock is supported by exceptionally stable and enduring demand that should lend itself to consistent mid-single-digit revenue growth for the foreseeable future.

Investors don’t need to apply a huge discount to that. And, they aren’t. Coca-Cola stock trades at 20X forward earnings. That is the same multiple it has traded at over the past five years, and will continue to trade at over the next several years.

Without changes in the P/E multiple, KO stock’s total returns over the next several years will equal earnings growth plus the dividend yield. The dividend yield is 3%. Earnings growth should be in the high single digit range, powered by mid single digit revenue growth on top of some margin expansion. Thus, total return should be in excess of 10%.

That is quite favorable for a low-risk and highly stable investment. As such, the KO stock price looks good here and it’s now an effective defensive play in a volatile market.

Bottom Line on KO Stock

When things get scary in the market, investors go defensive and look for stability. KO stock is the poster child for stability. As such, this stock should outperform so long as markets remain volatile.

As of this writing, Luke Lango was long KO and GOOG. 


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2018/10/why-coca-cola-stock-will-keep-on-truckin-in-this-volatile-market/.

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