September historically sucks. Actually, that’s a word my mom would yell at me for saying… so let’s go with “stinks.”
September historically stinks.
The media is really going to town with that notion. I read a Yahoo Finance headline earlier this week that said, “Why the S&P Could Soon Lose 10% Before You Even Realize What Just Happened.”
I love Yahoo Finance. I usually go on the show about once a month, when I get back to New York. But let me tell you… that headline drives me absolutely crazy!
Over the last 30 years, September has traditionally been the worst month for stocks. The Dow is down 0.75% on average, the S&P 500 is not as bad at -0.47%, and the Nasdaq is actually up 0.02% – so about flat. Gold, on the other hand, is up 1.67% on average.
But the percentage of times the market has been down over that time frame is more interesting. The Dow has been down in September 47% of the time over the last 30 years. The S&P is about the same, while the Nasdaq has actually been up 60% of the time.
So when you look at the odds, it’s still a coin toss. And despite a rough first day, September has gotten off to a pretty good start so far this year.
Here’s another stat for you: Over just the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has actually been up almost 1% on average.
It’s no secret that Wall Street loves to look at negativity. It gets you worried, which makes you more likely to fall victim to clickbait. But for me, there are so many more factors to consider.
Here’s what I’m seeing in the market today:
- Low interest rates
- A Fed that’s on our side
- Inflation that is pretty much nonexistent
- Jobs being created at some of the fastest rates ever
- Unemployment at one of its lowest rates ever
- Corporate earnings that are poised to bounce back in the second half of this year and have a great 2020
- Valuations that are nowhere near bubble levels
Remember that we are long-term investors. Sure, September could see the market fall. But we don’t know that. And frankly, it doesn’t matter. Right now, the market is a buy.
If you listened to the media, you would think that the broad indices are 20% off their highs. In reality, the S&P is less than 2% from its all-time high! And there are some great opportunities out there in individual stocks.
Ignore the media… and listen to what I’m saying today:
I’ve been putting money to work, and I think you should be doing the same. Forget September. We’re looking ahead to the year-end rally and beyond.
That’s an excerpt from my latest MoneyLine podcast, which I posted to the site earlier today. I think my message is especially important given everything you’re hearing, so you should definitely check it out.
If you’re a regular MoneyWire reader, you know how bullish I am. We seem to get these scare stories every year at this time. And every year it’s important to ignore the noise and dig deeper to uncover what’s really going on – and what’s about to come.
But September scare stories aren’t the only topic I cover in this week’s podcast.
I also talk about the huge opportunity in sports gambling. With the NFL having kicked off its centennial season last night, fans are getting back to the sportsbooks. And if you read yesterday’s MoneyWire article, you know that I believe legal betting will transform sports – or at least sports fans – and make investors wealthy.
Good luck to everyone and their teams on Sunday. Unless, of course, you’re a Dallas Cowboys fan – I hope you lose every game this season. (Go Eagles!)
When you watch the podcast, you may notice I have a bit of a cold. I’m practically a hypochondriac, so you can bet I’m not going to the doctor’s office to get something else from the sick guy sitting next to me in the waiting room. I use telemedicine. I can talk to my doctor virtually. Telemedicine is the future of healthcare, and I’ll tell you about one company at the forefront of this trend.
After today’s podcast, I recommend you listen to any of my recent MoneyLine podcasts you may have missed:
- Last week, I discussed the massive opportunities in several trends related to China. I also touched on the volatile August market and why investors should be salivating at the opportunities being created, as well as one mega-trend that I believe is going to change the future of batteries.
- And on August 23, I told you about an article that touted a dozen recession-proof stocks. It was basically clickbait, and I was disappointed with what I read. The moral of the story is to do your own research! I also talked about China again, specifically the “Shopify of China,” and two housing stocks that reported strong earnings. I tell you what the means for the economy.
I post a new MoneyLine podcast to the MoneyWire website every Friday, and I’d love to have you involved. I’m going to start answering your questions in the podcasts, so please send them my way. Whether you want to talk about the market, stocks, the start of the football season, or anything else, email me your question and I’ll do my best to answer it. You can email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Be sure to check back every Friday for the latest podcast. You can also subscribe to MoneyLine on iTunes, Stitcher, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts.
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P.S. Speaking of life-changing trends, I just released my latest Investment Opportunities Monthly Issue that talks about how we’re at the beginning of the greatest wealth transfer in U.S. history from the baby boomers to the millennials.
The millennials have now taken over as the largest living adult demographic. What’s more, they’re reaching their peak earning years, which means they have more income to spend and are looking to buy houses and start families.
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