In my last take on the state of gold on Jan. 22, I discussed a near-term investment opportunity that looked to be setting up in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD). Specifically I said that “for GLD, a break above $121 is bullish for a trade, while a break below $119 is bearish again (for a trade).”
Fast forward to Tuesday, and GLD indeed broke out of the $121 area to the upside and has given traders something to play on the long side.
Today is a good day to revisit the charts of gold, as the arrival of the new Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen — who on Tuesday gave her first semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee — is making big headlines.
Yellen kept the Fed’s policy unchanged and reiterated the accommodative stance. As a result, gold finished Tuesday more than 1% higher, and the dollar (which I also alluded to on Jan. 22) is lower. When the dollar falls, commodities at the margin get a bid to make up for the fact that the currency they are priced in is falling. Always keep this relationship in mind when looking at gold.
Looking at the chart of GLD, note that last week, the ETF held its 50-day moving average (yellow) and last Friday pushed past a resistance line (black diagonal) that has been in place since late August 2013. Gold continued to rally Monday and Tuesday, and that also has taken it above its 100-day moving average (blue) now.
From here, while I remain my view that through a multiyear lens, gold’s chart is broken and a meaningful rebound is nowhere in sight, the newfound upside momentum could push the GLD toward its 200-day MA (red), currently around $126.70.
For a little perspective, if GLD manages to push into its 200-day moving average, it would be the first time in almost exactly one year that the ETF has gone anywhere near it … and that is something to respect, all else being equal.
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Learn more about the strategies Serge Berger uses to create profits in the market every day. Download his trading plan in the Essence of Swing Trading e-book by clicking here. As of this writing, he did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.