Trade of the Day: BlackBerry (BBRY)

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We’ve opened a bearish trade on BlackBerry (BBRY). Over the last few years, we have taken several different stances on BBRY. In 2013, we were bearish on the stock but, in mid- 2014, we turned very briefly bullish. However, a longer-term hold was contingent on the company being able to turn around its business. Unfortunately for BBRY, the escalating onslaught of competition from Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG), Samsung, LG and others has not helped its turnaround plans.

There have been some real improvements in cash flow, but the easy gains have been exhausted, and BBRY is threatening a breakout below support at $9. We like a bearish entry in BBRY right now for a few reasons.

First, we believe BlackBerry’s improvements during the last year have run their course. Increased competition and an aging technology have not helped the software/services side of the business to continue showing gains.

Second, the announcement that BBRY will be adding an Android phone smacks of desperation. The space is crowded and has very thin margins at this point. This would have been a good move two or three years ago, but not now. Maybe there will be enough customers looking for a physical keyboard to carve out a small niche, but we doubt it. However, the speculation around the new phone has popped the stock a little. That has reduced the cost of the BBRY puts, and we want to open a bearish position before investors sell the “news” and earnings later this month.

Buy to open the BBRY August 9 Puts (BBRY150821P00009000) for a maximum price of $0.57.

We don’t have a target in place for the options, but we’ll be watching the underlying stock to break below $9, and we’ll assess when to take profits when that happens. We also don’t often use stop losses because normal market volatility for an option to the tune of 30% to 60% can result in a lot of unintentional early exits. Rather, we emphasize the importance of proper position sizing – keeping all of your options trades the same percentage of your trading portfolio, somewhere around 3% to 5%.

And, while we have you, if you took the Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK) trade with us last week, we recommend you take any small profits now. GREK has dropped near support at $10, and it is starting to rebound. Interestingly, these options have not increased in value as much as we anticipated based on the break and subsequent drop below the previous support level at $11.50.

Seeing as how these options don’t appear to be ready to increase in value — even though we have had a strong increase in the fund’s implied volatility levels — we recommend taking your profits off of the table.

We’re continuing to hold the Pfizer (PFE) trade but don’t recommend any new positions at this time.

InvestorPlace advisers John Jagerson and S. Wade Hansen, both Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designees, are co-founders of LearningMarkets.com, as well as the co-editors of SlingShot Trader, a trading service designed to help you make options profits by trading the news. Get in on the next SlingShot Trader trade and get 1 free month today by clicking here.

You can learn more about identifying price patterns — like a bearish continuation diamonds — and using them to project how far you think a stock is going to move in their Advanced Technical Analysis Program.


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2015/06/bbry/.

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